Warwick Farm Racing: 2017 Summer Sprint Betting Tips
2017 Summer Sprint Betting Tips
The $100,000 Summer Sprint is Race 7 on the card at Warwick Farm this weekend in what looks to be an open and competitive affair.
Five runners are priced between $3.30 and $7.00, with Cosmic Cameo next at $10 and the remainder of the field long odds.
They key to this race could be finding those that handle the conditions best, with the track currently rated a Heavy 8 and unlikely to improve significantly.
In terms of pace, this looks like it could be run at a fierce pace, with the likes of Oxford Poet, Plateau Gold, Sundance, Aspiring and even Eye Striker all front running horses. With that in mind, something with a drop on the leading division may be best suited here.
Oxford Poet tends to lead in whatever race he contests, and from barrier 11 it’s likely they’ll look to spear across to find the front. He’s a quality horse and has trialled superbly leading into this, but there are some queries. Firstly, he’s never raced over 1000m before, with his five career wins coming over 1200m-1400m. He lumps 61kg here, 4kg more than any other horse, and if a horse kicks up on his inside, he may be forced to spend a bit of petrol early. I’ll be taking him on at the price.
Another horse fancied in the market is Dal Cielo, but he’s another one I’ll be taking on. This horse has plenty of talent – he was 2nd in the Group 2 Bendigo Guineas as a 3YO – and looks to have returned in good order this prep under Kris Lees. But I think his best racing is clearly on firm tracks, and he won’t get that here. He’s failed at both attempts on Soft ground and I also think his best is over a little bit further than this. However, he will get the pace to suit and if he does handle the ground, he’ll be in the finish.
Toby Edmonds is a trainer in fine form up in Queensland and he brings his horse Sundance down to contest this race after two wins from three starts this prep. He’s recorded three wins and two placings from five starts over this distance and has won his only start on Soft ground, so he looks a realistic chance here.My concern with him is that he could be caught in a speed battle up front. From barrier 3 with 53kg he’ll look to lead just as he has at all three starts this prep, but he won’t get it all his own way today.
Plateau Gold is another that will be up on speed after leading all the way to win over 800m first up at Coffs Harbour. He won quite comfortably despite lumping 63.5kg, and he’s finished in the money at 13 of his 24 starts at this distance. He receives a significant weight drop here with just 54.5kg to carry and has won on both Soft and Heavy ground before. The interesting is whether they will attempt to lead from barrier 7 or sit just off the leaders. I don’t think he knows anything else but to lead, but if he manages to find the front and get an easy sectional, he could be very hard to run down.
The horse I really want to be on here, however, is the favourite Mr Manhattan. Put a line through his last start where he never got clear in the straight in a harder race than this, and instead look back to his previous two wins, the first of which was over this track and distance. He’s got three wins and a 2nd from four starts over 1000m, and has never finished outside the top 2 at this track. From five starts on Soft ground he has three wins and two placings, and importantly, he will get the pace he needs to come from the back of the field here. Everything is in his favour to win today and I think he’s a great bet at $3.30.
The value could be Cosmic Cameo at double figure odds with 50kg on his back after the claim.
1st MR MANHATTAN
2nd PLATEAU GOLD
3rd DAL CIELO
4th SUNDANCE
ALWAYS GAMBLE RESPONSIBLY
