UFC Fight Night 69 Preview and Betting Tips

UFC Fight Night 69 – Sunday 21st June 1:30am AEST from Berlin, Germany

Joanna Jedrzejczyk (9-0) vs Jessica Penne (12-2)

Joanna Jedrzejczyk has her first straw weight title defense against the grizzled veteran Jessica Penne. The 1.5 round beat down she put on Carla Esparza to win the title was the most impressive striking display I have ever seen a woman put on inside the octagon. Jedrzejczyk has a very decorated Muay Thai career and has been able to transition that game to MMA with devastating effect. She packs incredible power into a 50kg frame, and throws with great volume and accuracy. She also has underrated footwork, constantly cutting off the cage and creating angles. Against Esparza she showed off great defensive footwork, by throwing and immediately circling away, Carla was constantly having to shoot from the outside, which went a long way to helping Jedrzejczyk stuff just about every takedown.

If Penne is going to win this one she is going to have to get the fight to the floor and get it there quickly. Her striking is serviceable, if a little sloppy, and she tends to play the ‘take one to give one’ game. However if she spends any extended time on the feet here, Jedrzejczyk is going to beat the breaks off her. Her strongest attribute is the submission game and she has a pretty significant advantage if the fight hits the floor. But she doesn’t have a traditional wrestling game and usually relies on crafty trips or clinch work to drag her opponent down. Penne also has a significant cardio advantage and if this fight goes into the championship rounds, there is a real chance she can take over and force a submission. However the key is going to be surviving the early onslaught.

Prediction: Brutal stand-up and great takedown defence against a ground fighter equals a relatively straightforward title defence for Jedrzejczyk and she should force a stoppage in the 2nd or 3rd round.

Bet: Jedrzejczyk by KO at $1.67 at Sportsbet

Dennis Siver (22-10) vs Tatsuya Kawajiri (33-8-2)

This fight between two MMA veterans continues our striker versus grappler trend, although both fighters here are able hang on the feet and on the ground. Dennis Siver is predominately a kickboxer and his background in Tae Kwon do makes him exciting to watch. He will throw plenty of spinning attacks without much setup, so regularly catches fighters unaware with a spinning back kick to the body. He’s a small compact fighter, which also helps him fire off kicks without telegraphing them. He has developed a solid ground game, and even had Connor Mcgregor on his backside for a moment in their fight.

Early in Tatsuya Kawajiri’s career, he was a decent striker and has a number of wins by knockout, however these days he relies almost solely on his ground control and submission game. He is very slick on the ground and is renowned for catching his opponents off guard by transforming seemingly innocuous positions into fight ending chokes very quickly.

Prediction: Both these fighters have shown off some real chin issues in recent fights and Kawajiri still packs enough power that a knockout either way is a real possibility. Add to that Kawajiri’s submission expertise, I definitely foresee a stoppage in this one. However I think the German’s has too much of a striking advantage and I think he will find Kawajiri’s shaky chin regularly. Siver by TKO in the 2nd round.

Bet: Total Rounds Under 2.5 rounds at $2.60 at CrownBet

Peter Sobotta (14-4) vs Steve Kennedy (0-0)

Australian Steve Kennedy will make his UFC debut after stringing together seven straight wins on the local circuit. Unlike most debutantes, Kennedy comes in a 10-year veteran of the sport with a well-rounded game. He is a BJJ black belt and has a surprisingly strong offensive wrestling game. He has pretty straightforward kickboxing, but certainly throws with plenty of power. He also has decent movement.

Peter Sobotta is another well-rounded, savvy veteran. He is primarily a ground fighter, but has some nice crisp southpaw boxing to go with it. He will also enjoy a four-inch reach advantage. After being cut from the UFC, Sobotta went on a tear, winning five straight fights in the first round all by rear naked choke. So this fight will certainly be a test of Kennedy’s black belt credentials.

Prediction: All things being equal I would really like a bet on Kennedy here. Unfortunately for Kennedy it’s his debut, it’s a very short notice fight and he’s fighting on the other side of the globe in his opponent’s backyard. For that reason I have to back the German, but I think Kennedy’s skills match up well enough that he should make it a competitive decision.

Bet: Will the Fight Go the Distance? Yes at $2.00 at Sportsbet