UFC 203: Miocic vs Overeem Betting Tips

September 10, 2016 by Posted in Betting Tips


UFC 203 – Miocic vs Overeem Betting Tips

Former Strikefore, DREAM and K1 world champion Alistair Overeem finally gets his shot at UFC gold, four years after he was booked against Junior Dos Santos for the heavyweight title. In the build up to that fight he tested positive to a banned substance and was suspended. Now riding a four fight win streak Overeem has earned a shot at Stipe Miocic’s belt. It’s fitting the UFC’s first Cleveland champion will headline the first card in that city. Miocic won the belt in decisive fashion with a first round TKO of Fabricio Werdum in May, but you not the true champion until you defend the belt and he gets that opportunity in front of patriotic home crowd. He has risen to the top of the heavyweight heap on the backbone of solid MMA wrestling complimented by excellent technical boxing and legitimate one punch KO power. Testament to Miocic’s punching power is his last four UFC wins have come by knockout, three of them in the first round. A golden gloves champion, Miocic is an athletic striker and is particularly good at changing direction and exploding into counters. He also has impressive footwork and lateral movement to avoid his opponent’s power punches. While at Cleveland state university, Miocic was a standout baseball player who could have gone to the MLB, but instead he concentrated on wrestling and became NCAA division 1 wrestler. His athleticism and footwork have allowed him to translate that wrestling background very effectively to MMA. He is excellent at disguising a takedown as a punch or a punch as takedown. He has a heavy top game and Overeem is going to find it very difficult to get back to his feet once Miocic gets him to the ground.

After going 1-3 following his PED suspension in 2011, it looked like Alistair Overeem may never get a chance to prove himself against the UFC’s elite. But a move to Jackson’s MMA and a big tactical shift has completely reinvigorated Overeem’s career. Prior to Jacksons, Overeem would just relentlessly push forward looking to uncork one of his many weapons and get the early KO. Unfortunately this left him wide open for counters and his notoriously bad chin and cardio meant he was KOed spectacularly in each of his 3 UFC loses. He is now a much more measured striker, who patiently waits for openings from the outside and tries to exploit holes in his opponent’s defence. This is particularly dangerous considering the vast array of offensive weapons at his disposal. He throws every kickboxing technique well and this makes him a nightmare to defend against. His grappling and takedown defence is also highly underrated and his step in knees and wicked guillotine make him a dangerous man to try and takedown. It is impossible to breakdown Overeem without mentioning the chin and cardio. Overeem really only has 2.5 rounds of cardio before his output significantly drops off and any clean blow has a really good chance of hurting him if not straight KOing him.

This should be a fascinating title fight between two excellent well rounded martial artists. If Overeem is going to win he needs the early KO and he certainly has the tools at his disposal to do that. He needs to keep Miocic at the end of his punches and avoid spending too much time fighting of the relentless Miocic takedown game. Miocic usually likes to play a high pressure game, but he must be wary of getting caught by Overeem coming in. If Miocic can take this fight into the deeper rounds the odds of him winning sky rocket and he will need to use his evasive movement and wrestling advantage to get it there. Overeem likes to throw teep kicks to maintain distance, but if Miocic can get the timing right, the counter takedown will be there all day. Overeem has one clear path to victory, but Miocic can win any number of ways and I expect him to get a KO victory over a fatigued opponent. Miocic by 4th round TKO.

Tip: Stipe Miocic by KO – $2.00 at Sportsbet

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