UFC 202: McGregor vs Diaz Betting Tips

August 20, 2016 by Posted in Betting Tips

UFC 202 McGregor Diaz

UFC 202 – Conor McGregor vs Nate Diaz Betting Tips

Boxing is often maligned for not being able to put together the most anticipated fights; the UFC has no such problem. There is no reason featherweight champion Conor McGregor and perennial lightweight contender Nate Diaz should fight for a second time at welterweight, but this is the fight the people want to see, so this is the fight we’re getting. Diaz shocked the world in the first fight; he was a late replacement on 11 days’ notice and despite looking like a bloody mess submitted McGregor at the end of the second round. McGregor looked good in the first fight. He was pressing the action, avoiding takedowns and landing all the meaningful strikes. He seemed to be loading up on his punches a lot, looking for the KO blow. Diaz has a good shoulder roll and he used it well to take the sting out of McGregor’s power punches. Halfway through the second round, McGregor noticeably slowed and Diaz was able to take over. He hurt McGregor on the feet with sizzling one-two combinations and absolutely dominated him on the ground, wrapping up a mercy kill rear naked choke to elicit the tap. McGregor’s camp believes he simply overextended on his punches and tired too quickly, but Diaz’s size and ability to absorb damage certainly seemed to rattle McGregor.

McGregor is a phenomenal striker, with an incredibly varied offensive arsenal. He is clearly more powerful, accurate and faster than Diaz on the feet and should get the better of the striking exchanges. He needs to pace himself better the second time round, Diaz is notoriously hard to finish and he is not going to succumb like McGregor’s featherweight opponents. In his quest for an early KO, McGregor was headhunting and went away from his usually varied attack. Diaz has a long torso and always stands flat footed; McGregor should try and exploit this more with body work and legs kicks. In his defence, he only had 11 days to prepare for the 6’3 southpaw Diaz, so this time round he should have a more tailored game plan. McGregor is a fantastic trash talker, maybe one of the best in combat sports history. I have no idea how much of what McGregor says it actually true, but his delivery makes you believe every word. This has no doubt had an impact on previous opponents, with many being beat before they even step into the cage. McGregor will not be able to get in Diaz’s head and in fact it looks like the fast talking Irishman is the one coming into this fight too emotionally charged. McGregor weighed in under the welterweight limit in the first fight, but he is adding more muscle mass in this fight and should come in as a more natural welterweight.

Nate Diaz is a crisp, high output boxer with a big reach advantage. He is best when he is the one dictating the pace and overwhelming opponents with volume. He is not known as a power puncher, so it was telling in the first fight how badly he was able to hurt McGregor on the feet. But how much that was down to McGregor’s poor conditioning or poor chin is still a question mark coming into the second fight. What is not debatable is Diaz’s grappling advantage. Diaz is a high level BJJ black belt under Cesar Gracie and he absolutely toyed with McGregor on the ground. However he doesn’t have a very good wrestling game, so getting the fight to the ground is always an issue. Diaz is a semi-professional triathlete so his condition is always on point and he will definitely have an advantage in the later rounds.

Prediction: Despite Diaz having such a recent submission victory of McGregor he is coming into this fight as the slight underdog. I believe that is partly due to McGregor’s popularity and partly because of how dominant he looked in the first round. McGregor will be more measured with his attack in this fight, but that will also give Diaz more of an opportunity to establish himself in the early stages. McGregor has that x-factor, which makes him a nightmare to bet against, but Diaz laid out the blueprint to victory and this time he has a full camp to prepare. Unfortunately I think we’ve already seen the pinnacle of the McGregor hype train and I expect him to lose here and then have the unenviably task of going down to fight a redemption seeking Jose Aldo. Nate Diaz by 4th Rd Submission.

Tip: Nate Diaz in round 4,5 or by decision – $4 at Sportsbet

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