UFC 198 Betting Tips

May 14, 2016 by Posted in Betting Tips

UFC 198 Betting Tips

UFC 198

This Sunday sees UFC 198 take place with a massive card of world-class bouts and we are offering betting tips for the Werdum V Miocic and Maia V Brown fights!

Fabricio Werdum (c) 20-5-1 vs Stipe Miocic (#3) 14-2

The heavyweight title is on the line for the first time since June last year and it will be contested in front of a sold out soccer stadium in Curitiba, Brazil. It’s a great fight between Fabricio Werdum, a Muay Thai and BJJ expert and Stipe Miocic, a boxer and high level wrestler. Werdum is very dangerous on the feet. He uses lateral movement and peppers opponents from the outside with jabs, and leg kicks. His lack of fear about being taken down means he is free to throw off balance strikes and the occasional flying knee. He also enjoys being in the clinch where he can throw knees or trip an opponent to mat. Once on the mat, opponents are in Werdum’s world. He is a world class BJJ practioner and maybe the best the heavyweight division has ever produced. He is dangerous the minute the fight hits the mat but particularly from the bottom or during transitions. He gets hit regularly and is often dropped, but he manages to keep his wits about him and can often force a submission if an opponent gets to overzealous looking for the finish.

In the number 3 ranked Stipe Miocic, the UFC have found a very interesting dance partner for Werdum. On the feet Miocic is a very good technical boxer. He uses head movement, feints and silky footwork to unload powerful counters from unforeseen angles. He will enjoy a three inch reach advantage in this fight which will only work to highlight his boxing ability. He is also very athletic for a heavyweight and can pack big power into his traditional boxing style. A division 1 wrestler, Miocic is very good at chaining together takedowns and is strong on top. If he does choose to go for a takedown h will need to be very cognisant of what Werdum is doing, because one small mistake can lead to him having to tap. He usually likes to fight in the clinch, but he should probably avoid that at all costs against a guy like Werdum. Like Werdum, there are question marks over his striking defence as he tends to rely on head movement as opposed to more traditional defensive manoeuvres.

Prediction: Werdum is by far the more dangerous fighter; he has the ability to stop the fight at any moment on the feet or on the ground. But Miocic is the faster, more technical striker and his wrestling pedigree means he won’t be a sitting duck once the fight enters the grappling realm. I’m picking the underdog Miocic to be able to stop the takedown and win rounds by being the more accurate and active striker.

Bet: Stipe Miocic – $2.38 @ Ladbrokes

Demian Maia (#6) 22-6 vs Matt Brown (#8) 22-13

Before the PPV action kicks on Sunday, there is a stacked prelim card starting on 10am on Foxsports 4. Headlining this card is a fascinating welterweight bout between two UFC vets. Brown was a 50-50 fighter before turning his career around in 2012 and going on 7 fight win streak (6 by KO) that was eventually halted by welterweight champion Robbie Lawler. He is an incredibly aggressive striker and he has a high pressure style. He comes forward using combinations to back his opponent against the fence where he can utilize his dangerous Thai clinch game. Brown is very technical in the clinch transitioning between collar ties and under hooks and unloading a vicious array of elbows and knees. He also has good trips from the clinch but I expect him to avoid going to the ground at all costs vs Maia. Brown is also renowned for his chin and cardio, meaning he has come back from some brutal beatings to get late finishes or take over a fight.

Other than former middleweight champion Chris Weidman, no one has ever got the better of Demian Maia on the ground. Once he is on top the round is over, he has such brilliant control and core strength that all opponents can do is try and avoid the submission let alone try and get back to the feet. The way in which he dominated Icelandic BJJ prodigy Gunnar Nelson on the ground in his last fight was testament to this. He has an underrated wrestling game and gets most of his takedowns from the clinch. Maia’s striking is limited to basic southpaw boxing, but he is excellent at transitioning from striking to grappling. He has shown a tendency to slow down in fights, especially if opponents can fight off his takedowns.

This is very much a striker vs grappler affair. If Brown keeps its standing he will probably get the KO, if Maia gets it to the ground he will dominate. An interesting wrinkle to this fight is Maia relies on clinch work to get the fight to the ground, whereas Brown’s most damaging strikes are elbows and knees in the clinch. Whoever wins that battle will go a long way to determining the outcome. I think Brown is good enough to avoid being submitted, but Maia should dominate. Brown’s cardio will allow him to come strong at the end, but Maia’s work in the early rounds means he should win a fun decision.

Bet: Demian Maia via decision – $3.10 @ Sportsbet

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Written by Bet King - Sports Betting Tips

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