Rosehill Racing Tips: Hobartville Stakes

CRC Hobartville Stakes 1400m – Group 2

The Group 2 Hobartville Stakes is one of three Group 2 races on the card at Rosehill on Saturday and sees the return of both the Caulfield Guineas winner and the Spring Champion Stakes winner. Also lining up is the Victoria Derby runner up, the Sandown Guineas runner up, the Eskimo Prince winner, the Magic Millions Maiden winner and a host of other quality runners, making this a quality edition of the Hobartville.

It’s hard to predict what the track conditions will be like at Rosehill come race time. The track is currently rated a Good 3 but there are a few showers expected throughout the afternoon on Saturday so we may or may not see a downgrade at some stage.

There doesn’t look to be a great deal of pace in the race, with Spill The Beans and Dal Cielo the only two horses I can really see competing for the lead. Despite Press Statement leading all the way when winning the Caulfield Guineas, that was more due to circumstance, so I’d expect him to sit midfield from barrier 8 here. Wolf Cry raced on speed when he won the Magic Millions Maiden so we may see him speed across from barrier 12 to gain a similar position. Shards is another that may work forward from barrier 10, while his stablemate Tarquin should take up a position in midfield from barrier 6. Torgersen will bring up the rear of the field, leaving Vanbrugh, Etymology, Too Good To Refuse, Le Romain, Montaigne and Balmain Boy just ahead of him in the run.

I would expect the likes of Vanbrugh, Etymology and Shards to find the 1400m a touch short, especially given the first two of those are first up from a spell. Tarquin seems to be a shadow of the horse that won the Group 2 Pago Pago this time last year, Torgersen would need to improve out of sight to win this, as would Balmain Boy and Too Good To Refuse.

There’s really only 4 genuine winning chances in my opinion, but none more so than Press Statement, and I think $2.50 is a fair enough price for the Caulfield Guineas winner. He’s had an identical prep leading into this race as Winx had for her first up run – two trials and a track gallop before tackling 1400m fresh. That tells me he is ready to win first up, and they’d want him to be winning this given his stud value. If he’s going to be a major player during The Championships he would want to be winning this.

The other three winning chances are Dal Cielo, Wolf Cry and Spill The Beans. Dal Cielo’s only start over 1400m was when he finished 3rd by a head behind Bon Aurum in the Caulfield Guineas Prelude, where he led throughout. Murray Baker wouldn’t send him over here underdone for a 1400m race, and from barrier 1 I’d expect him to lead this. Wolf Cry was a dominant winner of the Magic Millions Maiden two starts back before clearly failing to handle the wet track last start. Barrier 12 makes his job tough here but back onto a firm track he should be competitive. Spill The Beans was an impressive winner of the Eskimo Prince Stakes last start but I just wonder if the soft track played into his hands. This is a much tougher race and he will need to improve once more to win this. From barrier 9 he should be crossing over to sit outside Dal Cielo.

Montaigne is the fresh horse on the scene with obvious upside.

Happy to back Press Statement here. He looks a class above these horses and I’m tipping Waller will have him ready to win first up.

1st PRESS STATEMENT – $2.60 at Bookmaker
2nd DAL CIELO – $12 at William Hill
3rd SPILL THE BEANS – $6.50 at Unibet
4th WOLF CRY – $11 at Bookmaker