Rosehill Racing: The Run to the Rose Betting Tips

September 8, 2017 by Posted in Horse Racing Tips

Rosehill Race 7 – The Run To The Rose 1200m – Group 2
The Group 2 Run To The Rose is the feature race on the card at Rosehill Gardens this weekend, with a host of top three-year-olds lining up in preparation for the Golden Rose in a fortnight.

We’re racing on a Good 3 here with the rail in the True position. In previous weeks we’ve seen Rosehill both favour rails runners and also prove disadvantageous to rail runners late in the day, so it will be interesting to keep an eye on the races leading up to this one.

Tactics-wise it looks pretty simple from a tempo and speed mapping perspective. Siege Of Quebec will lead and that looks the only pace in the race. Expect Kementari to be handy, as will Tangled, and Pariah may settle closer to the speed today from the good draw. The likes of Menari and Invader will be forced back from wide barriers.

I really do think there’s just the four winning chances here, but I will note that the way the race is set to be run, Siege Of Quebec will have every chance out in front.

The clear top pick for me is Menari, who returned in blistering fashion four weeks ago in The Rosebud. He was first up from a spell with 60.5kg on his back, settled back in the field, and charged home over the top of Siege Of Quebec to record a win that stamped him as a legitimate Group 1 horse heading towards the Spring. Amazingly, he gets an 8kg weight swing in his favour over Siege Of Quebec today, so despite his wide draw, he is the one they all have to beat.

His main market rival is the Snowden-trained Pariah, who also recorded a stunning victory first up from a spell two weeks ago. He drew barrier 9 of 9 that day and settled towards the back of the field on the rail, before jockey Blake Shinn guided him through the field coming around the turn and the horse did the rest. To put the performances in perspective, both Pariah and Menari recorded a time of 1:03.20 for the 1100m. Menari had the better final 600m sectional of 34.01 as opposed to Pariah’s 34.17. Pariah should be able to settle much closer today from barrier 3, which should give him first run on Menari.

Group 1 Inglis Sires’ winner Invader looks the standout value in the race at $17. He was well supported in betting first up but failed to make an impression, finishing 6th of 8. I think he’ll be much better with that run under his belt, though, and Hugh Bowman takes the ride for the Snowden’s today. He will have to come from well back in the field, but his quality shouldn’t be underestimated.

The big watch is on Kementari, who is a horse I’ve got a lot of time for. He ran 2nd to stablemate Malahat on debut (we recently saw Malahat return to the track with a win), before winning brilliantly by a margin of four lengths at his next start. THis is his first start since that win back at the end of May, but he has trialled noticeably well leading into this race. Over this distance, I think the edge stays with Menari in particular, but heading towards the Golden Rose this horse is one to keep safe.


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