Rosehill Racing Preview: The BMW Betting Tips
Group1 The BMW 2400m Betting Tips
Not quite a vintage edition of the Group 1 The BMW this year if you compare it to the 2015 field, but we are still set for a very competitive affair.
We’ve got a field of 10 set to line up for the $1.5million event and it looks like we will be racing on a Good track after it was upgraded from a Soft 5 early on Friday. There looks to be one or two drops of rain about on Saturday but not much more than that and I don’t expect it will affect the track enough to end up back in the Soft range.
The pace in the race will definitely be coming from European import Storm The Stars, who has his third run in Australia here. Chris Waller has said they will lead with him and see if he can build speed steadily as he has no sprint in his legs like the others. The only mare in the race, Rising Romance will likely box seat behind the leader from barrier 1 and Caulfield Cup winner Mongolian Khan won’t be far away either. Who Shot Thebarman and Our Ivanhowe should position midfield, with the three-year-old Montaigne and Almoonqith and Preferment could be back worse than midfield, with Arab Dawn and regular backmarker Grand Marshal likely to bring up the rear of the field.
Preferment comes into this as the favourite at $3.40 after his win via protest in the Group 1 Australian Cup at Flemington last start. He steps up to the 2400m here which his trainer Chris Waller has raised some question over, but I think he will get the distance quite comfortably so he deserves to be favourite and is the horse they all have to beat.
Our Ivanhowe is his closest competitor in the market and he also comes out of the Australian Cup which was run at an unsuitably slow tempo. There have been concerns during the week about a minor hoof problem and that is enough to deter me, though I wouldn’t be surprised for one second if he were to win.
If Preferment fails to win it may be another Chris Waller horse that does because the step up to 2400m is sure to suit Who Shot Thebarman, who won by 7 lengths the last time he raced over this distance. This will be his fourth run back from a spell and this is really his first chance to be a genuine winning chance. Mongolian Khan is sure to appreciate the rise to 2400m which of course is the distance of his success in the Caulfield Cup. I’m not conviced he is going as well this time in though.
Rising Romance should have absolutely every chance of winning from barrier 1 and is sure to get the run of the race. She’s always thereabouts at this level and at this distance, and though I doubt she can beat Preferment she definitely shapes as a great place chance. David Hayes and Tom Dabernig are also represented by Almoonqith, who could be value in the race despite finishing last in the Australian Cup. His form may not read the best but he actually ran the second fastest final 200m in the Australian Cup and he won the Geelong Cup in convincing fashion the last time he raced over 2400m.
There is plenty of interest around Montaigne who was a game runner up behind Tarzino in the Rosehill Guineas last start. With the conditions of the race he gets weight off every other horse and the form behind Tarzino is definitely very strong. My concern with this horse is taking on the older horses at this level over 2400m considering he is still in his very first preparation, though reports are he is flying on the track.
Arab Dawn and Storm The Stars would certainly have to improve on their latest efforts to pick up a cheque here, while Grand Marshal is progressing nicely to the Sydney Cup.
We’ve seen Chris Waller dominate the big races all season and I think it’s set to continue here.
1st PREFERMENT
2nd WHO SHOT THEBARMAN
3rd OUR IVANHOWE
4th RISING ROMANCE
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