Rosehill Racing: 2017 Golden Rose Betting Tips
ROSEHILL RACE 7 – GROUP 1 GOLDEN ROSE 1400M
The Group 1 Golden Rose is the feature race in Australia this weekend, with a host of the country’s best three-year-olds set to clash over 1400m.
Temperatures are set to reach 33 degrees in Sydney on Saturday so we can expect the track to be particularly firm. I think we’ll see the sparks fly early and that will ensure a good tempo to the race, with The Mission, Gold Standard and Formality all nailed on to go forward to contest the lead. Tactics will play a big part here, particularly with favourite Menari who went forward last start from the wide barrier.
Speaking of Menari, there’s no doubt he’s the horse to beat here and provided he gets even luck, I think he’ll put them away once again. He backed up his impressive first up win with an even more impressive win last start, defeating Pariah after going forward from out wide and accelerating away. The question is whether they go forward again from the wide barrier given he steps up to 1400m for the first time. I think they will, and if Parr can slot him in, I expect him to be too good.
Conversely, word is that Pariah will be going back from his wide barrier today. He was comfortably held by Menari last start over 1200m, but I think the 1400m will suit this horse better. If the tempo is as hot as I expect it will be, it will set things up for him coming from the back. He’ll need to have improved, but the Snowden stable will have him right at his peak for his grand final here.
Outside of those big two in the market it looks an awfully competitive affair. Another Snowden runner, Dracarys, looks the best value in the race to my eye at the $21 mark. Last start he beat home Gold Standard (a $10 chance here), yet he comes up $21 having not been seen since. His win was all the more impressive given he pulled up with a puncture wound in his hoof. He’s had a few weeks off now and has trialled in between runs, so from the good draw I think this horse can run a big race.
Merchant Navy brings the interesting Melbourne formline to the race. He’s undefeated in three starts and he was also impressive at his first run back from a spell at Caulfield in Group 3 company. My query is how that Melbourne form will line up with some of the better Sydney form on display here, but he does draw well and Mark Zahra flies over for the ride. Can go well but I don’t think he’ll quite measure up to the best horses in this field.
Another horse that’s flying is Gold Standard. After being narrowly defeated by Dracarys he went on to win his next start easily, and I really like the fact that he’s had a run over 1500m before dropping back to 1400m here. Most horses in the field are unproven over the 1400m so the fact he’s won over 1500m stands him in good stead.
Formality hasn’t put a foot wrong this prep and trainer David Hayes thinks she’ll be even better suited over 1400m. The wide barrier and the expected pace battle could bring her undone. Champagne Cuddles, Trapeze Artist and Assimilate others to include in a very competitive field. But Menari is the one they all have to beat.
1st MENARI
2nd DRACARYS
3rd PARIAH
4th GOLD STANDARD
