Rosehill Racing: 2017 Civic Stakes Betting Tips
The Listed Civic Stakes is one of the feature races on the card at Rosehill Gardens this weekend, with a field of 13 set to line up over the 1350m.
The track is currently rated a Soft 6 but with fine weather predicted we can probably expect an upgrade at some stage so we’ll be working off a Soft 5 track.
The race looks fairly devoid of speed with only two runners that tend to race up on the pace, those being The Monstar and Girl Sunday. Every other runner in single figure odds tends to come from midfield or worse, so if the front runners get a cheap sectional throughout the race, it could turn into an on-pace favoured affair.
There’s three that really stand out for me in this race, although the chances go deeper than that.
The drop back from Group 1 company to a Listed race is the thing that catches my eye with Gold Symphony. Two starts ago he ran 3rd to Clearly Innocent, beaten 2.6L, with that horse then going on to win the Group 1 Kingsford-Smith Cup, and last start he was beaten 2.9L by Impending in the Stradbroke Handicap. He only rises 3.5kg here and to me that makes him very well placed here. He’s finished in the top two at five of his six starts on Soft ground, and Hugh Bowman is a hugely positive jockey booking, especially when teamed with Team Snowden. The lack of speed in the race hurts his chances, but if there’s one jockey who will have that worked out, its Bowman. At $7.50 I think he’s a huge price here and happy to back him each way.
The horse that he’ll have to beat is Sir Bacchus, who is the favourite for the race at $4.00. He put in a terrific run last start over 1400m at this track when held up until the 200m mark before flashing home to finish 2nd. He’s another that will be hurt by the lack of speed but he has a lethal turn of foot when he gets clear room. He’s got three wins from five starts on Soft ground and is another that gets conditions to suit. Interestingly, however, he also ran in the race behind Clearly Innocent two starts ago, finishing 4th, half-a-length behind Gold Symphony. Gold Symphony actually gets in better at the weights compared to that day, and therefore I think they’ve got the market wrong with Sir Bacchus at $4 and Gold Symphony at $7.50.
One horse whose preparation I’ve been impressed by so far is Invincible Knight. First up he was desperately unlucky not to win, but he made up for it last start when finishing off best under 61kg over this track and distance. What is most encouraging, however, is that he generally improves third up from a spell, where he’s recorded two wins from four starts. He drops 8kg for this given the rise in grade and despite drawing a wide gate, I really expect him to run well in this at $9.50.
The last horse that I can entertain is Girl Sunday, who has been around the mark in all three starts this campaign, but really gets conditions to suit here. She’s got a great record over track and distance, carries just 53kg, but most importantly, should be able to sit up on the pace in a race with a very moderate tempo. At $10 she’s worth including.
Extensible and Telopea two others worth including in exotics.
1st GOLD SYMPHONY
2nd SIR BACCHUS
3rd INVINCIBLE KNIGHT
4th GIRL SUNDAY
