Rosehill Racing: 2017 BMW Stakes Betting Tips

March 24, 2017 by Posted in Horse Racing Tips

BMW Stakes
The BMW 2400m – Group 1

The Group 1 The BMW is one of two Group 1’s on the card at Rosehill Gardens this weekend and despite only having nine runners in the field it looks set to be a hugely competitive race.

The track is set to be bottomless once again and will be at least a Heavy 9 given the rain its had and the forecast for the lead up to the race. Given we only raced on it last week it could be even heavier than what was dished up for the Slipper meeting. However heavy the track may be though, there’s no arguing the form stood up just fine and the best horses won so we’ve just got keep an eye on the mudlarks.

The pace looks pretty simple to me here. I think we’ll see Lasqueti Spirit attempt to do similar to what she did in the Oaks, and even if they aren’t as ambitious with the tactics, I don’t think there’s any doubt she will be the leader. Jameka is the only other on-pace runner in the race so expect those two to be your leading pair without a great amount of tempo.

Tavago and Libran may sit closer given the lack of speed, Who Shot Thebarman and Our Ivanhowe could slot in just worse than midfield, with Humidor, Exospheric and Grand Marshal at the back.

I think the wet track will suit Our Ivanhowe, Taavago, Grand Marshal and probably Humidor best, but it’s hard to rule out any of these purely because of the heavy track. Libran is the only one that’s failed on heavy ground, but he was second up over 1600m behind Winx, so it’s hard to say the heavy track was the sole reason.

Our Ivanhowe does love it as wet as possible though and that was proved the case when he bolted in to win the Group 1 Ranvet Stakes first up over 2000m last start. No problems stepping up to 2400m and I don’t think the quick back up will be an issue. There was a slight query over a lameness issue but you’ll know how fit he is by watching the market in the lead up to the race. if the money comes, he is a massive chance of winning this.

There is a big watch on his stablemate Exospheric here who could be the value in the race at $11. It’s hard to know how he will handle the heavy track but his run in the Australian Cup was huge without having any luck. The step up to 2400m third up from a spell is ideal and provided he handles the wet, he will be right in the mix.

The Australian Cup was won by Humidor on the day, and he comes to Sydney and steps up to 2400m now. he’s had one start over 2400m in his career where he didn’t place, but the way he’s raced this prep suggests he is probably looking for the extra ground. One start for one win on heavy ground and the Teofilo breed certainly like it, but my query is the record of Darren Weir’s horses in these big Sydney races. Happy to risk him today.

The one I’ll be backing is Jameka who did a stack of work in the Australian Cup to only be run down late by Humidor. She now steps up to her Caulfield Cup distance of 2400m where she absolutely belted them. She’s also had the one start for one win on heavy ground, and with the lack of pace in the race she will get a great run in the race. I’m ready to back her today.

Tavago bolted in in Group 3 company last start and will relish the wet and the step up to 2400m, while Libran is now ready to produce something at a distance that is much more suitable for him. Grand Marshal isn’t the worst 150/1 pop given his liking for the wet.

Tough race but a cracking one at that!


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