Rosehill Horse Racing: 2016 Run To The Rose Betting Tips
MTA Run To The Rose 1200m – Group 2
The Group 2 Run To The Rose is the highlight of the card at what is set to be another wet Rosehill meeting in Sydney on Saturday.
12 three-year-olds are set to line up over the 1200m ahead of the Group 1 Golden Rose in two weeks’ time.
The track is rated a Heavy 9 and while there isn’t a great deal of rain predicted, I don’t expect any significant upgrade so prepare for a wet track.
Pace looks quite good with Astern and El Divino expected to make use of their low barrier draws, while Tessera (barrier 4) also raced up on the speed last prep. Gladfly could make his way over from barrier 12 which will inject a bit more pace too.
Star Turn should get a lovely run just behind the pace setters from barrier 5, with Nikitas, Mediterranean and Impending also looking to hold positions in midfield. Good Standing will settle worse than midfield from his wide barrier, Telperion will be forced back from barrier 11, with Cellarman also thereabouts. Manolo Blahniq will likely settle at the rear again.
Godolphin holds a strong hand here with four runners; Astern and Impending look clearly the best of the bunch. Astern has three wins from four starts – his latest of which was a dead heat with El Divino in the Kindergarten Stakes on a Soft track. He was sharp in a recent trial and McDonald chooses to ride him. The Heavy track is a slight query.
His stablemate Impending will be ridden by Brenton Avdulla, and he also won his latest trial in readiness for this. This colt won very well on debut before finishing 3rd at his latest outing back in May. McDonald chooses to ride Astern instead but from barrier 6 he will get a good run off the speed and a win wouldn’t surprise.
El Divino is undefeated from his two starts and aforementioned he dead-heated with Astern in the Kindergarten Stakes. Interestingly Hugh Bowman takes the ride for Gai Waterhouse. He’s also had two trials leading into this and while the latest wasn’t particularly breathtaking, he did win his debut on a Heavy track by 5 lengths so conditions will suit here. From barrier 1 he will be up there on the pace and he has definite winning claims.
Two weeks ago all the talk was about Golden Slipper winner Capitalist but it was the Hawkes-trained Star Turn that was heavily backed and won accordingly. He looks to have come back as a very good three-year-old and from barrier 5 he will get all the favours in the run. He’s untested on Heavy ground but he has won both starts on Soft, so it would be no surprise to see him go on with it here.
Team Snowden has Mediterranean engaged here after his narrow loss to Thronum last start. He charged home after labouring early in the straight and his win previous to that was also on a Heavy track. The track may not be as wet as it was for him last start, and I’m quite keen on his chances here.
One at longer odds who could show up is Good Standing for James Cummings. He won impressively first up last prep in the Group 2 Skyline Stakes and he looks ready to go here after two trials. Worth including at $19.
This looks a super race and very hard to separate the leading chances. Godolphin holds a very strong hand but both Astern and Impending are untested on this ground and for that reason I’m siding with Mediterranean. He has the benefit of two races under his belt and is proven to handle the wet track so at $6 he looks a decent each-way bet. Star Turn is also expected to back up his strong first up performance, while El Divino and Good Standing are others to include.
1st MEDITERRANEAN
2nd STAR TURN
3rd ASTERN
4th EL DIVINO
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