Rosehill Gardens Racing: Listed Winter Stakes Betting Tips

July 15, 2016 by Posted in Horse Racing Tips

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Winter Stakes 1400m – Listed

The $150,000 Listed Winter Stakes is the feature race of the program at Rosehill Gardens this weekend, which sees a field of 10 line up over the 1400m.

Despite the moderate size of the field there is plenty of competition, with six of the 10 runners in single figures in the market.

The track rating will obviously have a major impact on the race, most notably for the favourite Ninth Legion, who probably needs it on the better side of Soft to win. The track is currently rated a Soft 7 but there’s minimal chance of rain so an upgrade throughout the day looks possible. I doubt whether it will make it out of the Soft range, but I also doubt it will end up in the heavy range.

The pace setters are fairly obvious and there doesn’t look to be much competition for the lead. Oxford Poet will almost definitely lead from barrier 3, unless they go very slow early and Ninth Legion decides to cross and lead from barrier 9. However, I think we’ll see Oxford Poet lead and Ninth Legion sit outside him.

Marenostro will look to make use of barrier 1 – I”d expect him to settle right behind the leaders. We might see Snippets Land settle a bit closer to the speed from barrier 5, while it will be interesting to see if Tales Of Grimm goes forward or back from the widest barrier.

Shadow Lord, Zin Zan Eddie and Hidden Warrior will make up the contingent to settle worse than midfield, which should leave Better Not Blue and Wouldn’t It Be Nice at the rear of the field.

This race looks harder to figure out every time I look at it, with five horses possessing genuine winning chances in my opinion: Ninth Legion, Tales Of Grimm, Marenostro, Oxford Poet and Better Not Blue.

Ninth Legion has strung two wins together and finally looks back to some of his best form under the training of Peter Robl. He beat a few of these last start in the Civic Stakes but goes up 1kg in the weights and has to carry at least 2.5kg more than anything else here. He’ll be there for a long way and probably wants the track to dry up a little bit more.

Tales Of Grimm won over 1500m last start at Eagle Farm but won’t get as easy a run in this race. The drop back to 1400m is a slight query as well so I’m not sure he is as well suited today.

Marenostro had no luck last start where he traveled wide for the entire race and finished well back in the field. His start prior, however, was disappointing and he had no excuses that day. Previous to that he won two on the trot so if he were to bounce back to that form he could win, and with barrier 1 he is sure to get an economic run.

Oxford Poet should find the front pretty easily which will suit him, but he had a relatively easy lead last start and was still beaten fairly comfortably by Ninth Legion and Better Not Blue. I expect him to be in the finish but whether he can hold on over 1400m is the question.

Better Not Blue got the closest to Ninth Legion last start – beaten a nose – and gets a 1kg weight swing in his favour today. He will want the tempo to be a bit quicker than it appears to be on paper as he will be coming from a few lengths behind Ninth Legion. He goes well over this course and distance, though, and can win today with the weight swing.

Even Snippets Land has a winning chance, but his record at Rosehill is particularly uninspiring so I’m prepared to risk him, while a win from any of the other four would be a surprise.

I wouldn’t want to have a bet on this race despite the open markets as there is nothing that stands out, but I think Better Not Blue will get his chance again today and the weight might just stop Ninth Legion from making it a hat trick.

1st BETTER NOT BLUE
2nd NINTH LEGION
3rd OXFORD POET
4th MARENOSTRO

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Written by Bet King - Sports Betting Tips

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