Rosehill Gardens Horse Racing: Listed Winter Stakes Betting Tips

July 29, 2016 by Posted in Horse Racing Tips


Winter Challenge 1500m – Listed

The Listed Winter Challenge over 1500m is the feature race of the card at Rosehill Gardens on Saturday, with 10 runners set to line up.

Last start Winter Stakes winner Oxford Poet comes up the $4.40 favourite in a very open field, and to my eyes this looks to be a decent race to bet in to.

The Rosehill track is currently rated a Soft 6 but the weather forecast suggest there’s no rain so we may see an upgrade, but I would think the track will be somewhere near the Soft 5 range.

There looks to be no pace in the race at all other than Oxford Poet, who should get things to suit out in front. We’ve seen Ruling Dynasty race handy to the speed in the past, as has Marenostro, so those could be the two most likely to join Oxford Poet up on the speed.

Alegria should make use of barrier 4 to be relatively close, while Zin Zan Eddie should get a decent run on the rails in midfield but may need some luck in the straight.

Sacred Master will settle in the back half of the field on his Australian debut, as will Allergic who is first up from a spell. Himalaya Dream has turned his form around since being ridden quieter so that will be the case again here, which leaves backmarkers Tales Of Grimm and Final Decision to settle at the rear.

The market suggests the race is wide open and I see four genuine winning chances here with a big watch on one or two more.

Oxford Poet simply has to be included on the back of his last start win and the fact that he could get things all his own way up front, which makes him very hard to run down. The 1500m might test him today but if he’s allowed to roll at his pace in front then they may not catch him.

Zin Zan Eddie got closest to Oxford Poet last start and came from a long way back. The extra 100m suits him today, as does the 1.5kg weight swing he gets in his favour today. The issue for him could be barrier 1 so he will need some luck, but if he improves once again he is a leading chance.

Alegria is the Godolphin horse that I feel is best suited here. She is first up from a spell and despite stretching out to 2600m last prep, she has won over the 1500m before. More importantly, her first up record is terrific and from barrier 4 she should settle fairly close to the speed.

One at a good price is Himalaya Dream who has completely transformed his form since being ridden back in the field as opposed to leading. Despite being up in grade, he drops to the minimum weight here and he has 3 wins from 4 starts over this track and distance, including two starts ago where he carried 58kg to win well.

Two to watch at bigger prices. Ruling Dynasty, who was very poor in his only start last campaign but is capable of better. Comes into this first up and if the money comes for him it will be a strong hint. The other is the Kiwi Sacred Master who has his first Australian start here. Group 2 winner over 2400m and Group 1 placed in the Auckland Cup. The trip is short of his best and you’d think Bowman would be riding if he was a genuine chance, but keep an eye on him going forward.

At the prices I’m happy to be backing Zin Zan Eddie ($5) and Himalaya Dream ($10), with saver bets on Oxford Poet ($4.40) and Alegria ($7.50).



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