Randwick Racing: Chelmsford Stakes Betting Tips

September 3, 2016 by Posted in Betting Tips, Horse Racing Tips

Randwick racing tips

Tattersalls Club Chelmsford Stakes Betting Tips – 1600m G2

The Group 2 Chelmsford Stakes is the feature race on the card at Royal Randwick today and the big news is the scratching of Winx due to the Heavy track. Ultimately her goal is the Cox Plate and its hard to know how taxing a run on the bottomless Randwick track can be, so we will instead see her on 17 September in the Group 1 George Main Stakes.

Of course the scratching of a $1.10 favourite opens up the race quite a bit! We have just the six runners set to line up after Spiritjim was also scratched, with Prized Icon now the even money favourite.

As mentioned above, the track is rated a Heavy 9, which shouldn’t be a problem for any of those that remain.

I expect Prized Icon to try and make use of his huge weight advantage so we may see him try and lead, but I also would expect Storm The Stars to make use of barrier 1 after a more encouraging trial back on the 15th August.

Hartnell will get the run of the race from barrier 2 on the back of the leaders, possibly with Preferment to come next, while Who Shot Thebarman and Grand Marshal likely to settle at the rear.

Preferment is the first of Waller’s four runners and comes into this first up. He’s never placed from 4 runs when first up so he will need the run, and the 1600m won’t suit him at all so his winning chances are minimal.

Who Shot The Barman is Waller’s second entry. He comes into this 2nd up after not doing much at all first up in the Warwick Stakes. He has at least won twice before over 1600m and once from six starts when 2nd up, but will also find the distance significantly short of his best.

Grand Marshal is the third for Waller and is also 2nd up after finishing at the back with Who Shot Thebarman in the Warwick Stakes. He’s also won over 1600m and will surely relish the bog track but he is an out and out stayer so isn’t really much of a winning chance.

Storm The Stars is the last of Waller’s quartet and probably the most interesting runner in the race for mine. He did absolutely nothing in his first Australian preparation but as we’ve seen time and time again, these imports need a prep or two to adapt. His most recent trial was more encouraging and he will also appreciate the wet track. From barrier 1 he might lead and could give a good sight.

That leaves us with the two market leaders: Hartnell and Prized Icon.

Hartnell ran a very impressive race behind Winx first up in the Warwick Stakes and he’s finished in the top 2 on four of the six occasions he has run over 1600m. He’s won 4 from 7 on Soft tracks and placed on both runs on Heavy ground, and from barrier 2 he should get all the favours in the run. In my opinion, he is the one to beat.

Prized Icon is the $2.00 favourite, however, based on the fact he is set to carry only 50.5kg – 8.5kg lessthan all other runners. That certainly helps his cause a lot, but I’m not convinced that warrants even money favouritism. He is a Group 1 winner, but that may have been the weakest and worst Group 1 of last season. First up he was beaten 2.7L by Divine Prophet in a Group 3 for his own age, and while the step up to 1600m is definitely beneficial, I am always wary of 3YO horses tackling Open company for the first time.

Simply, I would rather back Hartnell (who is proven at WFA) on the back of a 3.5L defeat to Winx, rather than backing Prized Icon based on the fact he gets a lot of weight off. I think the $2.80 for Hartnell is a much better option. I may be proved wrong but I can’t take $2.00 for Prized Icon in WFA company.




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