Randwick Racing: 2017 Sydney Cup Betting Tips

April 7, 2017 by Posted in Horse Racing Tips

2017 Sydney Cup Preview
The Group 1 Sydney Cup is one of four Group 1 races on the card at Royal Randwick this weekend and sees a field of 14 lining up over the 3200m.

The track is once again wet but not completely bottomless like it has been in recent weeks, and by the time we get to Race 8 I’d expect to be running on a Soft 7 at worst.

There’s just the one Group 1 winner in the field this year – Who Shot TheBarman – so in terms of quality it’s not quite a vintage edition of the race.

There actually looks to be quite a bit of pace in the race. Vengeur Masque will definitely be going forward from the wide barrier with the light weight, as will Pentathlon and both Godolphin runners, Polarisation and Penglai Pavilion. Chris Waller has said that Who Shot TheBarman will be closer from the good barrier, as will Kinema if the pace allows, while Big Duke will look to sit ride on the back of the leaders from barrier 5.

I expect this to be a genuine staying test rather than a sit and sprint.

There’s four main runners that I think are genuine chances, with another three that could win without totally surprising.

Ladbrokes-Odds-Boost

Big Duke is the short priced favourite and it’s easy to see why. He’s won five of his last six races and was convincing when winning the Chairman’s Handicap over 2600m at this track last start. Gets an ideal draw and carries no weight so he’s as good a hope as Weir’s ever going to get to break his Group 1 duck in Sydney. The query is the two miles, and at the price I would rather take the longer odds about some other runners than back him hard at $2.60.

The horse I’ve got on top is Assign. He too has a query over the 3200m given his only attempt was in last year’s Melbourne Cup where he failed, but this is no field of superstars and he looks primed to run a big race here. We’ve seen this stable produce their runners for the Sydney Cup with this sort of lead up before – we only have to go back to last year when Gallante won. He’s weighted to win, in form and the stable know what kind of horse it takes to win this so at $8 I’ll have something on.

Chris Waller was adamant that Who Shot TheBarman would run in the top 3 here and the only thing I can see preventing him from doing that is his weight. You have to be pretty good to carry top weight and win these, but then again, this field isn’t the strongest Sydney Cup field. the positives for this horse is that he’s a Group 1 winner over this trip and has run 2nd (beaten a pimple) in this race before. He’ll handle the track, has had an ideal lead up and draws well. His record at the track is uninspiring but many of those have been over unsuitable distances. Definite place chance.

The value in the race for me is the stablemate Libran, who was favourite for this race last year and ran 2nd. He really hasn’t appreciated the very heavy tracks in recent weeks but he gets onto a slightly firmer track here and drops from WFA Group 1 company to a handicap, which is much more suitable. He gets Bowman on board today, he’ll run the trip out strong and can bounce back at $16.

The three outside chances that wouldn’t surprise me are PENGLAI PAVILION, ANNUS MIRABILIS and KINEMA. Penglai Pavilion is the first choice runner for Charlie Appleby and Godolphin, while Annus Mirabilis will definitely run the trip. Kinema will relish the firmer ground and the strong tempo and could be the blowout at $41.

1st ASSIGN
2nd BIG DUKE
3rd LIBRAN
4th WHO SHOT THEBARMAN

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