Randwick Racing: 2017 Missile Stakes Betting Tips

Randwick Race 7 – MISSILE STAKES 1200m – Group 2

The Group 2 Missile Stakes is the feature race on the card at Royal Randwick this weekend with a number of top liners stepping up their Spring campaigns.

The track at Randwick is currently a Heavy 8 after rain throughout the week, and despite fine weather predicted for Saturday, I think we’ll remain around that range.

I have a pretty clear idea of how I expect this race to pan out. There’s about five or six horses in a field of nine that are typical leaders. Those include Jungle Edge, The Monstar, That’s A Good Idea, Tycoon Tara and Memes. Even Harper’s Choice and Invincible Gem tend to be up on the pace in their races, and Boss Lane is normally prominent. That leaves a mad charge for the lead and one horse sitting out the back waiting to pounce, and he just so happens to be the best horse in the race: Le Roman.

He won at this level first up last prep and that was also over this track and distance. The difference being, he carried 61kg that day and only has 58.5kg to carry here under weight-for-age conditions. He’s the genuine WFA Group 1 horse in the field, has never missed a place first up from a spell, has never finished outside the top two over this track and distance, and has finished in the top two at five of his six starts on Heavy ground. The pace will be on and he will get the last shot at them so really, this race looks his for the taking. $2.20 is about as low as I’d want to go over this distance, but he really does look the obvious choice.

In the battle for the lead I expect Jungle Edge to come out on top. We all know he loves the mud and that makes him a real chance in this if Le Romain is below his best. But the big query is whether the form he has from the Autumn is good enough to beat some of the better horses in this race. I have my doubts and he’s a place chance rather than a genuine winning chance.

The value could actually be Invincible Gem, who returns for the first time since running 2nd in the Randwick Guineas over 1600m back in March. Her best may come over a mile or even beyond, but it wouldn’t surprise me to see her be ultra competitive here. If they run the race as hard as I expect, and with it being on a wet track at Randwick, it may play into the hands of horses that have a touch more staying power than speed. At $9 I’d be keeping her safe.

Tycoon Tara was a Group 1 winner the last time we saw her. She’s first up from a short spell following that victory, and my concern here is that firstly, the field is pretty handy, and secondly, her wins all come when she is allowed to dictate in front. I doubt she’ll get the lead here, and that diminishes her winning chances. Prepared to risk her today.

The Monstar is a genuine place chance, and even a small winning chance, given his recent form. He’s flying and excels on wet ground. He’s won his only start over the track and distance so at double figure odds I’d recommend you include him in your exotics.

1st LE ROMAIN
2nd INVINCIBLE GEM
3rd THE MONSTAR
4th JUNGLE EDGE