Randwick Racing: 2017 Doncaster Mile Betting Tips

April 1, 2017 by Posted in Horse Racing Tips

Doncaster Mile BK
The $3 million Doncaster Handicap is the headline race on Day 1 of The Championships which also features three other Group 1’s.

A full field of 20 runners is set to line up on what is sure to be a very heavy Randwick track after another 38mm of rain fell this week.

There looks to be a pretty decent tempo to the race with the likes of Ecuador, I Am A Star and Testashadow those most likely to fight for the front. Given a couple of those draw a touch wide we should see a good pace set from the start.

I don’t think those that have drawn wide barriers will be too disadvantaged with this race set to be run very late in the day. There’s a chance that the outside ground could be superior by this stage but it will be important to see how the track races throughout the day. 20 of the past 30 winners of the race have drawn wider than barrier 10, including seven of the past eight.

There’s five main chances that I’m considering here, and the first of those is the favourite Le Romain. It’s easy to see why he’s the favourite here, with a near faultless preparation leading into this. He won his first two starts this prep over 1200m and 1300m, before bumping into Winx last start. He gets to 1600m now with those three runs under his belt, a distance he has won twice at from three attempts. He’s never finished outside the top two from four starts on heavy ground, and has finished in the top two in seven of his eight starts at Randwick. Barrier 8 should see him get a very comfortable run in midfield, and I actually think he’s quite well weighted here. With Bowman on board he’s the horse to beat.

Happy Clapper ran 2nd to Winx in this exact race last year and his preparation leading into the race this year has been spot on, albeit different to the path he took last year. He’s had two starts with the latest of those being a very impressive win in the Newcastle Newmarket, carrying 59kg and winning by over 3 lengths. He comes into this ready to peak at his third run back and up to his pet distance. The only query would be the heavy track, but his soft track form is enough to suggest his two failures on heavy were more due to the class of the opposition rather than the surface itself.

Chris Waller has four runners engaged and I think the best of those is McCreery who also comes into this third up from a spell. He won first up at this track on a heavy 9 which was possibly worse than it will be today, and he now gets out to the 1600m where he’s finished in the top two in six of his seven starts. He carries just 53kg here and despite drawing barrier 17 I think he’ll be thereabouts at the finish.

Waller’s other big chance comes in the form of Antonio Giuseppe. We’ve seen Waller use this tactic of dropping a horse back from 2000m to 1600m with a great deal of success in the past. Antonio has had two runs over 2000m in his past two starts and now drops back to 1600m where he will need the fitness base on the heavy track. He’s won two of his three races on heavy tracks and the key for him is dropping from WFA company to a handicap. Instead of carrying 59kg like he did last start, he gets in with just 52kg here. He could be the best value in the race.

But the horse I think they’ve all got to beat is the Newmarket Handicap winner Redkirk Warrior. I just think this horse could yet be a star in Australia and he has plenty in his favour here. He won brilliantly over 1200m first up against some of the country’s best sprinters, and that is well below his best trip. The 1600m (or even 2000m) is his best trip, and I have no queries about the sharp step up. He is undefeated when second up from a spell like he is here, and even David Hayes admitted he is a WFA horse carrying a handicap weight. When Hayes is so excited about the ability of a horse, he’s generally pretty spot on. The two obvious question marks are the heavy track and the barrier. We don’t have the slightest idea about how he will fare on a heavy track, and as for the barrier, it could be a blessing in disguise. He will no doubt need a great ride from Regan Bayliss, but at the price he is I’m willing to take a bet on the heavy track issue.

Others worth including are Hauraki and Spectroscope for Godolphin.


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