Randwick Horse Racing: Missile Stakes Betting Tips

August 5, 2016 by Posted in Horse Racing Tips

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Mark Moran Missile Stakes 1200m – Group 2

Only a very small field assembled for the Group 2 Missile Stakes at Randwick on Saturday, probably due to the nomination of Golden Slipper winner Capitalist before he was scratched from the race due to the Heavy track.

Nonetheless, six runners line up over the 1200m and $175,000 is up for grabs.

As aforemetioned, the track is currently rated a Heavy 10 (it doesn’t get much wetter than that) and it appears as though there is still a bit of rain to come. Randwick has a notably poor drainage system so I find it highly unlikely that we will be upgraded from the Heavy range.

The lack of numbers also brings about a lack of natural leaders in the race. In fact, all of the runners engaged typically find themselves in the back half of the field, so it is a bit of a query as to who will take it up.

Personally, I think Rebel Dane or Tycoon Tara will be the pace setter, as they have shown slightly more versatility than the other four. The remaining four horses – Generalife, Big Money, Mount Nebo and Wouldn’t It Be Nice – could be in any order behind the leaders.

The lack of numbers does, however, allow us to look at each horse in more detail.

Rebel Dane comes up the even money favourite following the scratching of Capitalist. He comes into this first up, where he has a terrific record having only missed one place from 8 attempts. I initially thought the 1200m may be a bit sharp for him at this point of his career but he has placed three times out of four over this course and distance. He’s also placed at both his starts on Heavy tracks so he may be the default option here.

Generalife is always there or thereabouts, thought he’s only finished in the placings at three of his nine starts when first up from a spell. He also doesn’t have a great record over this distance or at this track, and he’s finished out of the money at all three starts over 1200m at Randwick. Never run on a heavy track so that is a definite query, though he’s placed twice from six starts on a Soft track. Prepared to overlook him today.

Big Money is the one that I think could roll the favourite. Proven to love the wet ground with 4 wins and 4 placings from 9 starts on wet tracks. He’s also placed twice from three starts over this course and distance and he showed signs of his best form last start when runner up in the Ramornie Handicap. Looks set to run well.

Mount Nebo won well over this track and distance on a Soft track three starts ago, before finishing within a length of the winner in the Ramornie. He was beaten by Big Money on that occasion, however, and has a 4.5kg weight swing against him today. Disappointing last start on a Heavy track, too, but he does hold a great record at this track so he could go well.

Wouldn’t It Be Nice comes into calculations due to the Heavy track here. He turned his form around last start and finished off well behind Redzel in the July Sprint at Canterbury, so with the track as Heavy as it is he could find himself in the placings again.

Tycoon Tara comes into this first up for her new stable: Team Snowden. It will be interesting to see what the market tells us in the lead up to the race. She has never missed a place on Soft tracks but she failed at her only attempt on Heavy. Has a reasonable record first up without being spectacular, but I’ll be happy to watch her here without having my money on.

I think Rebel Dane is the default option here but I think Big Money can run a good race, and his race fitness may be the telling factor on the wet track. Mount Nebo can bounce back, while Wouldn’t It Be Nice can go well on the heavy track. Prepared to take on Generalife and Tycoon Tara, though in a field of only 6 runners anything can happen.

1st BIG MONEY
2nd REBEL DANE
3rd WOULDN’T IT BE NICE
4th MOUNT NEBO

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