Morphettville Racing: 2017 Darley Goodwood Betting Tips
The Group 1 Darley Goodwood over 1200m is the feature race on the card at Morphettville this weekend.
The track in Adelaide is currently rated a Good 4 and although there’s a slight bit of drizzle around it shouldn’t affect the track much at all.
With a full field of 20 runners engaged here I expect this to be run at a pretty solid tempo. Malaguerra, Secret Agenda, Vega Magic and Karacatis all tend to lead or at least race on the speed, though i do think it will be Secret Agenda and Karacatis that find the front.
If Secret Agenda finds a cheap sectional out the front then she will be very hard to run down as we saw two weeks ago in the UBET Classic. She has the perfect draw to lead comfortably today and if there is any rain that falls it will only increase her chances of winning. There looks to be a bit more depth to this but she’ll be the one they have to chase down.
The market leader is of course five-time Group 1 winner Black Heart Bart, but he’s going to be up against history which says it’s hard to win this race two years in a row. He is capable of doing it, but the big difficulty for him will be barrier 2, which will see him settle on the rail in midfield or worse. That means he’s going to need an 11/10 ride in order to find gaps and avoid traffic in the straight. While I love the horse, I’ll be taking him on for that reason.
The speed should play into the hands of Malaguerra who will slot in just behind the speed from barrier 9. He comes into this a touch underrated in my opinion and at $9 he is over the odds. The last time he raced on a firm surface over 1200m he bolted in at the Valley and beat Black Heart Bart by 2 lengths. Forget his last two runs where he didn’t handle the step up to 1400m and then didn’t handle the heavy track in the TJ Smith. The only knock I have is the weight he carries here but the stable said he was absolutely flying heading into the TJ and if he finds his best back on a firmer track I expect him to be right in the finish.
The runner which is relatively unknown is Vega Magic, who comes over from WA and makes his debut for the Hayes & Dabernig stable. He might be unknown to plenty, but I know plenty about him and he’s got the quality to win this, especially under the care of this stable. He probably should have won first up last prep and his record at the distance is phenomenal with 7 wins fro 10 starts. The barrier draw for him is ideal; he’s led in many of his races but he may let them go here and camp just behind the speed. We might yet see the best of him over 1400m but he’s worth backing at $7.
The value in the race could be the likes of Basset at $41 or Lucky Liberty at $26, while First Among Equals is another WA horse to keep an eye on at a big price.
1st VEGA MAGIC
2nd MALAGUERRA
3rd BLACK HEART BART
4th SECRET AGENDA
TIPS ARE SIMPLY THE AUTHOR’s OPINION. ALWAYS GAMBLE RESPONSIBLY
