Flemington Racing: Turnbull Stakes Betting Tips

October 2, 2016 by Posted in Horse Racing Tips


Yellowglen Turnbull Stakes 2000m – Group 1

The Group 1 Turnbull Stakes is the feature race on the card at Flemington today – the third consecutive day of Group 1 racing this weekend!

A field of 13 is set to line up over the 2000m at Flemington, and it looks as if the rain may be on its way! The forecast is predicting plenty of rain so the Good 4 track is likely to be downgraded to somewhere in the Soft range prior to the race.

There doesn’t look to be a great deal of pace in the race, but I think we’ll see a change of tactics from Second Bullet today, who I expect to go forward from his wide barrier. Jameka will roll forward from barrier 7, and Hartnell will use his good barrier to sit up on the speed too.

Our Ivanhowe might use his inside barrier draw to take up a more prominent position, and other than that we have a field full of horses that like to settle off the pace. Preferment may position close to the field from barrier 5, and The United States could also settle closer from barrier 2.

Tarzino, Happy Trails, Tally and De Little Engine typically race in the back half of the field, while Sofia Rosa, Set Square and Raw Impulse will likely go back in an attempt to find cover.

It’s very hard to look past the Godolphin galloper Hartnell here after two blistering wins in his past two starts since running 2nd to Winx first up. He’s won by nearly a combined 14 lengths in those two wins which has seen him installed as second favourite for the Cox Plate. He gets all the favours from barrier 4 and any rain would probably only enhance his chances. The only query I have is two failed runs at Flemington but one was a midfield finish in this race last year and the other was in the Melbourne Cup. If he reproduces his recent form he should win this.

The United States shapes as the biggest danger to him, in my opinion. He was good first up in the Dato Tan Chin Nam Stakes and he’s never finished outside the top 2 at his second run back from a spell. He’s only ever finished outside the top 2 once over this distance – last prep he won the Group 1 Ranvet Stakes before running 2nd in the Queen Elizabeth. Looks ready to run a big race.

Jameka is another that comes into consideration after an eye-catching first up run was followed by a blistering win over this distance in Group 3 company last start. Expect her to go forward in a race with little speed and if she gets an easy run up front she could be very hard to run down for those coming from behind her.

Others to consider are Preferment, Our Ivanhowe, Sofia Rosa and Raw Impulse. Preferment has been poor in two starts this prep, but is a dual Group 1 winner over this track and distance, and always fires 3rd up. The soft track could bring him undone, though. Our Ivanhowe will appreciate the 2000m and any rain, while Sofia Rosa is ready to show something at her third run back and will only be better suited with a wet track.

Raw Impulse bolted in on a wet Morphettville track in Adelaide last start and will only improve up to 2000m here. He’s perhaps the least exposed in the field but needs to improve once again to feature inn a race this hot.

Sticking with Hartnell but if you’re chasing the value I think you’ll find it with The Unites States.



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