Flemington Racing Tips: Kensington Stakes

January 29, 2016 by Posted in Betting Tips, Horse Racing Tips

Flemington Racing

The Bet King’s horse racing tips specialist takes a look at Flemington this Saturday, January 30 with detailed preview and tips of the Kensington Stakes.

Kensington Stakes 1000m – Listed (Race 7)

11 horses are set to tackle the 1000m Flemington straight in the Listed Kensington Stakes on Saturday.

With a fair bit of rain on Friday and the possibility of a few showers on Saturday the likelihood is that we’ll be racing on a Soft track, but I wouldn’t expect it to be excessively wet due to Flemington’s good drainage.

The pace in these 1000m straight races is always hard to judge, with horses quite often happy to race without cover. The leader looks certain to be HARD STRIDE for the Ellerton & Zahra stable which is flying at present, but it looks unlikely that their hot streak will continue here with the 5YO gelding struggling for form.

WILD RAIN, which has finished in the top 2 in eight of her past 9 races, will also take up a position on speed from barrier 1 as she usually does, with the only other on speed types being PINK PERFECTION (barrier 5) and BULLPIT (barrier 2).

HEADWATER and STRATURBO will get nice runs in midfield from barriers 4 and 3 respectively, but as is often the case in these straight races, will need luck at the right time if they is to get a clear passage in the final 400m.

THE MONSTAR, YESTERDAY’S SONGS, ICONIC and THE QUARTERBACK all tend to come from well back in the field in their races and I see that being a similar scenario here.

There are plenty of factors to consider in this race, the most important being the 1000m distance, the possibility of a damp track and the fact that 5 of the horses in the field are having their first run back from a spell.

I’ve narrowed my winning chances down to 5 horses.

THE QUARTERBACK is very talented on his day and has an outstanding record over the 1000m at Flemington. The last time we saw him he flew home from the back of the field to win over 1000m here on a wet track – very similar conditions to what he will face Saturday. My concern with him is the 60kg.

ICONIC is the most interesting runner for me – he’s resuming here after 294 days off the track with a few issues delaying his return. However, as Tony McEvoy has proved recently, punters need to take notice when he brings a runner over from Adelaide. He is a speed horse that loves 1000m – 1200m and he goes very well fresh; he’s won a trial in good fashion leading up to this and he shapes as a great chance.

WILD RAIN is an obvious inclusion based on her outstanding form – as mentioned above, she’s finished in the top 2 in eight of her last nine races. She has a great record over the distance and has proven ability on wet ground.

THE MONSTAR raced very well during the Spring in some quality races. If he brings that same form here he stands as a great each way shout at double figure odds. Races well fresh, has a great record over the distance and he’s won 4 from 7 on wet tracks.

The final runner on the shortlist is PINK PERFECTION who has returned in terrific form this time in.Comes into this on the back of a runner up finish over this course and distance last start and is sure to be peaking at her third run back. Should enjoy a lovely run in midfield and will be thereabouts at the end.

I’m happy to oppose last start winner BULLPIT; the money came for him that day and he races by himself on the outside rail and won pretty comfortably. He won’t get the same circumstances today and I predict we’ll see him blow a gale in the market. YESTERDAY’S SONGS might find the 1000m just a bit too short but he should be steaming home, while there are a few whispers around suggesting HEADWATER has returned well, but I’m happy to watch him go around.

I’m going to take a punt on the Adelaide runner for Tony McEvoy here but with no great confidence. Open race!


Written by Bet King - Sports Betting Tips

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