Flemington Racing: 2017 Makybe Diva Stakes Betting Tips
Flemington Race 7 – Makybe Diva Stakes 1600m – Group 1
The Group 1 Makybe Diva Stakes is the feature race on the card at headquarters this weekend as we continue our march towards the Spring carnival.
We have a field of 12 runners set to line up over the 1600m, but we’ll have to stay tuned to the track conditions given the possibility of 6mm of rain to fall throughout the day. Currently the track is rated a Good 3, but if that rain does fall then we may be downgraded slightly.
This looks a very tactical race with a distinct lack of speed on paper. For that reason, I think we’ll see Hartnell lead today. Black Heart Bart and Le Romain should sit midfield, Gailo Chop could go forward from the inside gate, with Jon Snow and Hey Doc the only other two runners I see potentially going forward.
If that’s the case (and even if it isn’t) I think Hartnell is close to a moral here. His first up win in the PB Lawrence Stakes was sensational and enough to change my opinion. I was prepared to take him on first up given I thought he normally needed the run, but he put that query to bed pretty quickly with a dominant display. He generally improves with every run, so if they couldn’t beat him over 1400m, I doubt they’ll be beating him over 1600m, especially if he runs the race to suit himself.
The step up to 1600m is a positive for Le Romain, too. He won the Group 1 Cantala Stakes last year over this track and distance, and draws to give himself every chance here. He can position in midfield and I think it’s worth forgetting his run last time out behind Vega Magic in a race that suited the on-pacers.
Conversely, I actually think the 1600m will be slightly detrimental to the chances of Black Heart Bart. The stable were very open with their intentions of having him absolutely ready to peak second up for the Memsie Stakes over 1400m, and I think he’s a better horse over that distance as it is. I’m not convinced he’s as good at 1600m, and if they had him spot on for that race and he wasn’t good enough, I doubt he’ll be good enough today against Hartnell.
The value in the race could be the Hawkes-trained Inference, winner of the Group 1 Randwick Guineas in March. His first up run was fairly plain, beaten 4.5L by a fairly handy horse called Winx, but his second up record is outstanding. He’s undefeated from three starts when second up, so I think we’ll see him improve sharply here. It’s worth noting that he won the Guineas second up over this distance last prep.
Hey Doc ran well in the Memsie Stakes last time out and should be suited by the step up to 1600m at Flemington. The draw isn’t ideal but he loves the track and is a Group 1 winner at the distance. Humidor and Jon Snow are horses to keep an eye on heading towards the Caulfield Cup, while Seaburge can outrun his 60/1 quote in betting.
1st HARTNELL
2nd LE ROMAIN
3rd INFERENCE
4th BLACK HEART BART
TIPS ARE SIMPLY THE AUTHOR’S OPINION. ALWAYS GAMBLE RESPONSIBLY
