Flemington Racing: 2017 Aurie’s Star Handicap Betting Tips
Flemington Race 7 – Aurie’s Star Handicap 1200m – Group 3
The Group 3 Aurie’s Star Handicap is the feature race at Flemington this weekend with 10 runners set to line up over the 1200m.
The race features a number of ‘good horses’ which will be using the race as a starting point to kick off their Spring campaigns.
The Flemington track is currently rated a Good 4 and that’s where it will stay despite minimal rain forecast.
It’s always hard to gauge the pace of straight races at Flemington, or indeed what barriers may be favoured on the day, but I suspect they’ll group in the middle of the track.
Flippant, Ruettiger and Grande Rosso are probably the three most likely to lead the field up, with I Am A Star, Manuel and Cannyescent tucked in behind those. Hey Doc, Snitzson, Yesterday’s Songs and We’ve Got This will likely race in the back part of the group.
The race is a tricky one to sort out and a genuine case could be made for a number of runners in the field. I think what we’ve got to look for are the classier runners that have the ability to sprint well fresh.
One of those is I Am A Star, who represents a good each way bet. She’s a Group 1 winner over the mile, but has shown she is more than capable over the shorter distances. She ran 3rd in Group 1 company over 1200m the last time we saw her, and first up last prep ran 2nd in Group 2 company over 1100m. So she ticks the right boxes, and despite the hefty weight of 58kg, I think they’ll have her forward enough to win this. At $7.00/$2.45, I think she’s a great each way bet.
Flippant is a mare that has the ability to win this but is a touch inconsistent. In November last year she bolted in by over 2 lengths at this track and distance in Listed company, which was the only time we’ve seen her down the straight. She’s got the benefit of two runs under her belt leading into this, which gives her a slight edge on those returning from a break, and unlike several others, this is her pet distance. She may be a horse that just has a knack for straight racing, and while I don’t have her on top, I’ll be keeping her safe around the $5.50 mark.
Ruettiger and Manuel both represent good value. Ruettiger was extremely disappointing last start but his 3rd placing behind Ability before that looks to be strong enough form to be competitive. There’s a few key gear changes here that could see him bounce back at $17. Manuel, on the other hand, is only a maiden winner, but has been competitive behind Speedeor and Calanda in the past. Forget his first up run as he always tends to need that run, so back on to a firm track and at the bottom of the weights, he could show up at $15.
We’ve Got This is a straight track specialist returning from a long break, so at his best would be competitive in this. I expect Hey Doc to find a few too sharp over 1200m with top weight, while Grande Rosso has been smashed in early betting markets on the back of a super trial but has never won from six starts first up.
Cannyescent was flying throughout the winter, coming into this with four wins from his past six starts, but this is a stiffer test than what he’s been facing. Snitzson is another that might need the run and could find the 1200m a bit sharp, and Yesterday’s Songs could well win if he brought his best form but you never know when that will be.
With all that considered, I Am A Star looks a relatively safe each way bet to me and I’m happy to back her at the price ahead of all others.
1st I AM A STAR
2nd WE’VE GOT THIS
3rd FLIPPANT
4th HEY DOC
