Eagle Farm Racing: 2017 Darley Kingsford Smith Betting Tips

May 26, 2017 by Posted in Horse Racing Tips

Darley Kingsford Smith Cup
The Group 1 Darley Kingsford-Smith Cup is the feature race on the card at Eagle Farm this weekend as we prepare for the first week of Group 1 racing on the new track.

13 runners will line up over the 1300m and the track is currently rated a Heavy 8, although that could be more so due to the loose surface rather than it being saturated.

The speed map looks pretty straight-forward here. Jungle Edge will lead and most likely get things his own way in front. I expect Music Magnate to go forward from barrier 13 to sit outside him or just behind him, and Start Wondering could come across with him. In His Stride will likely box seat just off the leaders along with Hopfgarten, with Impending and Black Heart Bart settling in midfield. Tycoon Tara has been settling back in the field in both starts this prep (although it wouldn’t surprise me to see her ridden forward here), while Derryn, Counterattack, Under The Louvre, Japonisme and Clearly Innocent will all be coming from back in the field.

Two horses stood out for me here, and I’m happy to be opposing the favourite Black Heart Bart here. He was disappointing first up in the Goodwood, but Darren Weir suggested it was more “rider error” than the horse itself. He thought Bart settled too close to the speed and he’ll be ridden a touch quieter here. The blinkers go back on, but the biggest concern has to be the heavy track. Bart simply doesn’t go as well in the wet, and the track will be shifty so you can leave me out of backing him today.

Instead I’ll be with Counterattack at $6.50, who loves the wet. He’s run 2nd to Redzel at his past two starts, the latest of which was in the Group 1 Doomben 10,000. That’s good form for this, and he draws to get a good run off the speed. Has performed well at this distance previously and I think he’s a great bet here.

The main danger to him is Derryn, in my opinion. Derryn ran 3rd in the Doomben 10,000 last start, about a head behind Counterattack. This horse also loves the wet and also draws well, although he may have a bit of traffic to weave through like he had to last start. He’s also at $6.50 and should go very close.

The value in the race is Tycoon Tara, who showed last start that she is getting back to some form. Last prep she was ridden to lead in most of her races, but in two starts this prep she’s been ridden cold. That’s why I just get a feeling that she may be ridden aggressively today in a race with not much pace. She goes well at the distance and there’s every chance she’s been targeted for this race. Snowden/McEvoy combination suggests she’s not just there to make up the numbers. $21 available and that’s over the odds.

Clearly Innocent could go close after bouncing back to his best form last start. Having said that, the horse he beat is not even close to what he’s set to line up against here, but the win was impressive nonetheless. He’s undefeated on Soft ground so the Heavy ground here shouldn’t pose a problem.

Jungle Edge will get things all his own way out the front, which gives him every hope of running a very bold race. He got things his own way last start and they couldn’t run him down, so with the track conditions just how he likes them, he will give a good sight out the front.

Backing Counterattack pretty heavily here with a saver bet on Derryn and a small each way bet on Tycoon Tara.

1st COUNTERATTACK
2nd DERRYN
3rd TYCOON TARA
4th JUNGLE EDGE

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TIPS ARE SIMPLY THE AUTHOR’s OPINION. ALWAYS GAMBLE RESPONSIBLY

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