Doomben Racing: 2016 BTC Cup Betting Tips

Group 1 BTC Cup Betting Tips

The Group 1 BTC Cup at Doomben on Saturday kicks off a month straight of Group 1 action in Brisbane. Next weekend will feature the Doomben Cup, the May 28 meeting will host the Doomben 10,000, which is followed by Oaks Day and finally Stradbroke Handicap Day on June 11. Read our latest horse racing tips article to stay up to date!

The first Group 1 of the carnival sees a handy field of 14 sprinters line up over 1200m, with Chris Waller holding a very strong hand once again.

There could be a charge for the lead early on with speedy mare Two Blue the most likely to find the front from barrier 14. Kristen Buchanan’s mare led all the way to record a solid victory in the Group 2 Sapphire Stakes on April 9 before being run down by the talented Nancy last start when lumping 59kg.

Malaguerra could join her in the lead from barrier 8 if that’s the tactic connections choose to adopt. They were certainly the instructions for Blake Shinn in the All Aged Stakes before Shinn made some very questionable decisions.

Gai Waterhouse’s Echo Gal is another that can lead, though last prep saw her ridden quieter. Fell Swoop is likely to come across from barrier 10 in search of a position near the speed, which could also be the case for Stratum Star, though he may be more conservative and look for a place in midfield.

The run of the race is sure to go to Japonisme who draws well in barrier 3 and should position just behind the leaders, while Dothraki will also be up near the speed from barrier 1.

Sacred Star and Liberation will settle somewhere in midfield from their decent barriers, with Artlee and Charlie Boy taking up a position toward the back of the field. Waller’s other pair of Counterattack and Delectation could bring up the rear of the field from their wide barriers, as is their usual pattern.

In terms of winning chances, I have this narrowed down to about three, though there is about a further four that could win without surprising.

Japonisme comes into this favourite and probably deservedly so. He backed up a string of consistent performances at Group 1 level with a strong win in the Group 2 Arrowfield Sprint last start. Doomben tends to favour those close to the speed and from barrier 3 he will get all the favours.

Malaguerra was flying before failing at Group 1 level last start. The 4YO can be forgiven for his poor display with post-race vet reports indicating he had lacerations to both fore legs as well as his tongue. He’s had a month off, drops back to 1200m and if he reproduces his form from earlier this campaign he can win.

Fell Swoop, similar to Japonisme, backed up a string of outstanding runs in Group 1 company with a good win in Group 2 company at this track last start. His record over 1200m is phenomenal and the only concern I have for him is his barrier draw. From barrier 10 he won’t get as good a run as he did last start, and against this quality of opposition I doubt he will be able to sit wide without cover and still win.

Waller’s less fancied pair of Counterattack and Delectation also hold very good chances if they produce their best. Counterattack ran Japonisme to the wire last start, while Delectation has been very disappointing all campaign. Waller seems to think he could be back to his best for the Brisbane campaign, but both horses will have to come from a long way off the leaders at the top of the straight.

Dothraki draws well and can be competitive for Team Snowden, Artlee looks ready to peak at his third run back from a spell, and Two Blue can give a bold sight out front. Stratum Star is better suited over the longer trips (though Weir runners can never be ruled out).

Charlie Boy and Target In Sight probably lack the class to win this, Sacred Star has struggled previously in Australia but is still one to watch, and local hope Liberation is aiming a bit too high. Gai Waterhouse’s only runner, Echo Gal, has trialed very well leading into this first up run, but may be outclassed.

1st JAPONISME
2nd MALAGUERRA
3rd FELL SWOOP
4th ARTLEE

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