Caulfield Racing: 2017 PB Lawrence Stakes Betting Tips

August 18, 2017 by Posted in Horse Racing Tips

pb-lawrence-stakes
The Group 2 PB Lawrence Stakes is the feature race of the day at Caulfield this weekend, with a star-studded field of 12 runners set to line up over 1400m.

The track conditions will be all important for this race, with the track currently rated a Good 4 but rain predicted for Saturday.

There really doesn’t look to be a great deal of pace on paper here, with Charmed Harmony the only obvious leader in the field. Gailo Chop led all the way to win the Mackinnon Stakes back in 2015, but is first up from injury. Hartnell has the ability to go forward, but first up they may look to ride him conservatively from the wide gate. The same can be said about Tosen Stardom. So I predict we’ll get just an even tempo here.

If the track gets into the Soft range, I’m keen to take on both horses at the top of the market. And even if it doesn’t get to Soft, I’ll be backing one at double figure odds as my primary bet.

Black Heart Bart’s record over this track and distance is unblemished, with four wins from four starts, including multiple Group 1 victories. He draws well and should be fit enough to win this first up, so he deserves to be favourite here, but Weir has said he will be much better for the run and is being aimed to peak for the Memsie Stakes next start. If the rain does come, I’m really keen to take him on, because he just doesn’t go on wet ground.

The Godolphin star Hartnell is on the second line of betting and he’s another one I’m keen to take on. They are setting this horse for the Caulfield Cup in October over 2400m, and while he’s still good enough to be very competitive here, I think he’s a huge query first up over 1400m. He’s never won first up before from seven starts, and although he was competitive first up last prep behind Winx, the runners behind him weren’t of this quality.

That means there’s plenty of value to be found, and it’s another Weir runner that I’m keen to be on here – Star Exhibit. He’s won three from four when first up from a spell, including a win over this track and distance first up last prep. He’s undefeated on Soft ground, so if the rain does come it only plays into his hands further. Draws to get a lovely run in midfield from barrier 6, and I think he is a really good horse to follow throughout the Spring. Keen to back him each way at $12.

Tosen Stardom ran 2nd to Black Heart Bart first up last prep and definitely has the ability to win this. From barrier 13 it will be interesting to see where they end up, but if he brings his best he’ll go close. The booking of Ben Allen is one that concerns me in a race this good, hence I’m looking elsewhere. But I wouldn’t underestimate the horse.

Humidor is a horse to follow towards the Caulfield Cup. He may need the run first up over 1400m here, but he’s another that can’t be underestimated. Montoya’s Secret faces her toughest test here but can go well at $26.

Star Exhibit each way all day.

1st STAR EXHIBIT
2nd BLACK HEART BART
3rd HUMIDOR
4th HARTNELL

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TIPS ARE SIMPLY THE AUTHOR’s OPINION. ALWAYS GAMBLE RESPONSIBLY

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