Caulfield Racing: 2017 Monash Stakes Betting Tips
The Group 3 Monash Stakes is the feature race on the card at Caulfield this weekend with 10 runners set to line up over the 1100m.
The Caulfield track is currently rated a Good 4, though there is 2-5mm of rain predicted for Saturday so we may see that end up in the Soft range. Caulfield is a great track for drainage, so hopefully we stay around the Good 4 mark.
This is set to be an absolute cracker of a race with several things to look forward to within the race itself, including the return of Lord Of The Sky and the Melbourne debut of Chocolate Holic.
Pace-wise this looks fairly obvious. Lord Of The Sky only knows one speed – fast – and Sunday Escape typically races up with the leaders. I’m expecting a decent tempo here, and a lot may depend on just how fresh Lord Of The Sky is.
The 6YO gelding returns to the track after nearly a year off the scene. Initially retired, the owners failed to secure a stud deal for the Group 1 place-getter, so he lines up here to contest his fourth Monash Stakes. He’s had one public trial leading into this and it was as impressive as ever, leading all the way under a stranglehold to record a four length win. He has six wins from 13 starts at Caulfield, and from the inside gate there’s no doubt what the tactic will be. Whether he is sharp and fit enough first up for nearly a year is the query,as is the 1100m here given he has had six starts at the distance for just the one win. If he returned at his best, he’d probably win this, but I’ve got him third pick in the race.
Ahead of him I’ve got the horse I’m most excited to see – Chocolate Holic. This 4YO makes his Melbourne debut for Darren Weir after a stellar start to his career in WA. His record stands at 11 starts for seven wins and three placings. We’ve seen time after time horses improve several lengths when they are transferred to Weir, and this horse profiles very similarly to Black Heart Bart. The big query here is the 1100m given the horse has never raced over the distance before. He’s won races at 1200m, 1400m and 1600m, and Weir has said all along that he think this horse will be best over 1400m. With that in mind, I’ve got him a narrow second elect, but it would come as no surprise to see this horse come out and bolt in.
Due to those concerns, I’ve gone with Supido on top here, who has also placed at Group 1 level before. This horse had three runs during the Autumn, which consisted of a Group 2 placing and two Group 1 failures. This is a huge drop in grade compared to those races and surely if he returns at his best he will win this. He has won four races from six starts when first up from a spell, should get a gun run in midfield from barrier 5, and unlike the two horses mentioned above, he loves the distance. Everything is in his favour here, and I think they’d be very disappointed if he was to lose this.
One horse that stands out as a possible value chance in the race is Murt The Flirt. His wins have come in much lesser grade than this, but he absolutely flies first up from a spell, with three wins from four starts when he’s fresh. He’s undefeated from two starts at the distance, has won at the track, and does have form behind some good horses such as VIddora. He’s drawn a tricky gate in barrier 9, but he does look like the next best horse in the race and for that reason $14 appeals on an each way basis.
O’Malley can run a good race here from the back of the field, while I will be keeping an eye on Divine Ten, who was a very, very good horse back in Hong Kong but has since failed to fire in Australia. He resumes from a spell here and I’m interested to see how he goes this time in work.
1st SUPIDO
2nd CHOCOLATE HOLIC
3rd LORD OF THE SKY
4th MURT THE FLIRT
