Caulfield Racing: 2017 Bletchingly Stakes Betting Tips
The Group 3 Bletchingly Stakes is the feature race on the card at Caulfield this weekend with 13 runners set to line up over the 1200m.
There’s plenty to be excited about in this race, with a few good horses stepping out for the first time before the Spring. Lankan Rupee makes his return, as does Keen Array, while Chocolate Holic makes his Melbourne debut after a very successful start to his career in WA.
Charmed Harmony looks to be the obvious leader here, and could be joined by Keen Array and Divine Ten, while Murt The Flirt should settle much closer to the speed from the good barrier today. Ability, Savannah Amour and Daytona Grey should all get nice runs in midfield, and that’s also where I expect Lankan Rupee to be as I don’t see them rushing him into stride at his first start back from injury. Overall I expect a moderate tempo here without being break-neck.
To my eye, Lankan Rupee is way under the odds at $4.60. The stable has said he’s being aimed at the Everest and is nowhere near fully fit for this. Even so, this is his first run back for 266 days, and only his fourth run since April 2015. It’s great to see him back, and of course his best would blow this field away, but I don’t think he’ll be winning this at all.
Supido comes up favourite after a solid win in the Monash Stakes two weeks ago over the 1100m here. He was entitled to give that field a beating, and his victory did signal that he was back at his best and going on to better races. He was given the perfect ride on the day and he draws to get the same run, but this race is significantly deeper than what he faced first up. He’ll be giving some good horses a decent start here, and I think at the price I’ll be looking to bet around him. Don’t get me wrong, he’s a definite winning chance and deserves favouritism, but I prefer others.
The horse I’m keenest to back is Ability, who has won all three starts since returning from a spell as a gelding. Those three races have been significantly easier than what he faces here, and this is a big step up in grade, but he’s won those races like a horse that can measure up here. Williams gets the ride back after missing his last win, and from the barrier he can settle midfield or better and get a great run in the race. I think this is a good horse, and the $8.00 available looks a great each way bet to me.
The value in the race, and possibly the forgotten horse, is Chocolate Holic. He was meant to line up against Supido two weeks ago but was scratched, so he makes his debut for Weir in today’s race. His best is definitely going to be over 1400m, but he’s capable of running a big race here. I was keen to be against him against Supido two weeks ago, but the difference was the price. Today at $13 he looks a big price and I’m willing to have an each way bet on him here.
There’s been early money for Savannah Amour, who is a Group 3 winner over 1200m and a Group 2 winner over 1400m. She returns from a spell here and has won a trial leading into this, and her record both first up and at the track suggests she could run a good race. This is harder than anything she’s faced before, but you can only beat what you’re put up against. She also maps to get a lovely run here.
Duke Of Brunswick will run a good race but maps poorly, while I expect Keen Array to need the run.
1st ABILITY
2nd CHOCOLATE HOLIC
3rd SUPIDO
4th LANKAN RUPEE
