Belmont Racing: 2017 Belmont Classic Betting Tips

July 22, 2017 by Posted in Horse Racing Tips

The Listed Belmont Classic is the feature race on the card in Western Australia this weekend with 13 runners set to line up over the 2200m.

The track is currently rated a Soft 5 and with plenty of rain around in Perth I would expect it to stay in the Soft range.

There doesn’t look a whole lot of speed in the race. Noble King is typically a front runner but raced off the speed last start. Fontainbleu found herself right up on the speed when winning the Oaks last start, Crimson’s Rocket normally races well-back in the field but was outside the leader last start, and the same can be said about Taxagano. So really, the race could be devoid or speed or there could be a furious charge for the lead early on!

Either way, I think we’ll see the $1.85 favourite Gatting go straight back from barrier 11. Autier absolutely butchered him two starts back in the Aquinita Stakes when caught three-wide the trip, but made amends last start when he snagged him from the start and rode him at the back of the field before pouncing late. I’d say they will do exactly the same from barrier 11, or at the very least look for cover in the three-wide line. The WA Derby winner is the best horse in the race, and the slight step up in trip only helps him, but this is his third tough run in as many weeks, and the query is whether he handles that. Can he back up for the third week straight and come from last (or at least well back) and win? At $1.85 I think that’s a genuine query, though if he’s at his best he will win.

If he’s not, there’s a fair bit of value to be found.

Jackpot Prince was given a fair old push by his trainer on radio this week. He’s been in terrific form since stepping up beyond 2000m, and finished 3rd behind Variation in the Aquinita Stakes last start (Gatting finished 4th). He’s got a great record at the track and a great record at the distance; we know he will stay the 2200m but there are two queries. The first is the wide barrier which will force him to come from a fair way back against a quality field – he did this two starts ago but the competition he meets today is superior to what he beat that day. The second is the Soft track. There’s been plenty of rain, and he has failed on both attempts on Soft ground. Granted, they were over shorter trips, but it still remains a concern.

Western Temple is the equal second-favourite with Jackpot Prince after finishing 2nd to Variation in the Aquinita Stakes. he draws the inside gate here and I expect him to settle much closer to the speed from that gate, especially given the possible lack of tempo. It must be said that if Gatting turns up at his best, he’ll have Western Temple’s measure (just as he did two starts ago), but if he’s below par this horse should be right in the finish.

I wouldn’t be discounting the fillies in this race, though it does look like the boys have their measure based on times.

Fontainbleu was the winner of the Belmont Oaks last start, but it must be mentioned that her winning time was nearly 2 seconds slower than the boys on the same day (Variation, Gatting, Western Temple, Jackpot Prince). However, their race was run at a very, very slow tempo which would explain the time differential. That played into this filly’s hands as she landed outside the leader and once they went as slow as they did, she was always going to be hard to run down. She may end up in a similar position today, and with a 2kg swing on the boys, she may prove tough to run down once again.

There is one filly in the race which I am very, very keen to back at big odds and that is Elegant Blast at $15. She ran 3rd in the Oaks last start and her run was huge under the circumstances. As mentioned, the race was run at a very slow pace, so her effort to come from near last and be beaten 1.25L shouldn’t be underestimated. She drew barrier 9 that day, so I’m hoping that from barrier 4 she can sit a touch closer today. Her entire prep has been riddled with luckless runs and she’s been crying out for the extra distance. She showed last start just how good she can be over a trip, so with the extra 200m here and hopefully a bit more tempo, I think she can run a big race. Another key to her will be the wet track – she’s won her only start on Soft ground and that’s exactly what she will get here. I think she’s well over the odds and I’ll be having a decent bet on her at $15/$3.40.

Gatting looks your winner but if you’re after something at a bit more value then Elegant Blast is the one to be on.


Written by Bet King - Sports Betting Tips

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