Belmont Racing: 2017 Aquanita Stakes Betting Tips

July 8, 2017 by Posted in Horse Racing Tips

aquanita stakes
The Aquanita Stakes at Belmont on Saturday shapes as a fantastic contest between WA’s two best three-year-olds who fought out the Belmont Guineas two weeks ago.

The Belmont track has played very well in recent weeks given the heavy rain in Perth and the track is currently rated a Good 4 despite more rainfall this week.

Tactics will play a big part in this and I think the start will be crucial here. Variation is drawn in barrier 11 and given the only leader in the race looks to be Noble King, I think we’ll see the Guineas winner roll forward to even sit outside the leader. I expect Dusty Storm and Jackpot Prince to box seat behind the leaders, which should leave Western Temple and the Derby winner Gatting in midfield.

The tempo of the race will be key and as mentioned, I don’t see a whole lot of pace, which is why I think Variation will be able to get across relatively comfortably. He managed to slot in 4th last start from barrier 11 – the same barrier he starts from here – and if he can do that once more he’ll have a few lengths on Gatting coming into the straight. In his three wins this prep, he has settled 2nd, 3rd and 4th, and his main failure in the Belmont Sprint came after he settled at the back of the field. This is his first go at 2000m and that is the obvious query. The tempo should give him every chance, but a horse at $2.60 stepping up to an unknown distance for the first time against a Derby winner is a big question mark. It was only last weekend that we saw Group 1 winning miler Scales Of Justice struggle to handle the step up to 2000m.

The Derby winner Gatting has a few things in his favour here. First and most obviously, the step up to 2000m favours him. He should have won over 1800m last prep before he went on to win over 2200m and 2400m. That tells us two things – that he definitely needs the ground but he is also sharp enough over 10 furlong to match it with Variation. Secondly, he comes into this at his third run back from a little spell, so he really should be peaking in fitness for this race as opposed to Variation who is having his sixth run of the campaign. He’ll get a beautiful run from barrier 7 in midfield and be saved for one run at them, and if Variation has to use any fuel at all to get across from out wide then Gatting will gobble him up in the straight. I really think he ticks all the boxes here and at $2.50 I’d recommend a decent sized bet on him.

The dark horse, so to speak, is Jackpot Prince, who has won over 2200m and 2100m at his past two starts. He will box seat from barrier 3 just as he did two starts ago, where he was able to show some impressive acceleration to bolt in by 3 lengths. He actually ran that in a good time so it would be no surprise to see him measure up here.

Western Temple finished 3rd behind Variation and Gatting in the Guineas and draws well here in barrier 5. It’s hard to know if he will handle the rise in trip, though he did fail when stepped up to 1800m last prep.

Dusty Storm goes into all exotics.


Written by Bet King - Sports Betting Tips

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