Ascot Racing: 2016 Perth Cup Betting Tips
2016 Perth Cup Betting Tips
The Group 2 Perth Cup rounds out the 2016 summer racing carnival in the West and we have a fascinating race to assess with 15 runners set to line up over the 2400m.
Perfect Reflection lumps top weight of 59kg here ahead of Itsahymn with 56kg. The rest of the field gets in on the minimum weight of 54kg, which means Perfect Reflection has a tough task ahead of her to emulate the Perth Cup win of former stablemate Delicacy.
We saw a daring ride from Frenchman Matthieu Autier on Fathoms of Gold in the Ted Van Heemst Stakes, which very nearly turned out to be one of the all time greatest rides ever seen in this state. He went some 15 lengths clear midway through the race and was only run down in the last 50m by Perfect Reflection. I expect we will see similar tactics today, although maybe not so audacious.
Itsahymn was left to do the donkey work by leading the remaining group behind Fathoms Of Gold last start, and he may well have to do it again from barrier 5. Zarantz should get the run of the race from barrier 4, with Cougar Express and Perfect Reflection also mapped to do no work. Dark Alert and Dark Musket should find positions in midfield with Dubai Escapade and Kia Ora Koutou slotting in thereabouts, while Neverland and Star Exhibit will need a bit of luck slotting in. The same can be said for The Forgotten One from barrier 12, while I’d expect Respondent, Tick Tick Bloom and Tradesman to go back from their wide barriers.
Can Perfect Reflection do what Delicacy did in the last edition of the Perth Cup and carry 59kg to victory? I don’t think so. I personally believe Delicacy was a better stayer and had a better constitution to deal with the weight. While Perfect Reflection is brilliant, I think she’ll struggle to deal with the 8kg weight swings from last start that she gives to a few of her rivals here.
The favourite for the race is Kia Ora Koutou, who looks to finally be nearing his best after struggling for a while following a leg injury. This horse is an out and out stayer, and I actually think he’s better suited over even more ground than this. His win last start was very good, and the mid-race move by jockey Joe Azzopardi turned out to be a winning one. He simply outstayed his rivals over the 2200m, and the step up to 2400m will only help. My concern is if this turns into a sprint from the top of the straight, I don’t think that suits him. He needs to either have a head start at the top of the straight or really get going a long way from home to build momentum. At the $3.30 quote, I simply can’t back him because I prefer one or two with a better turn of acceleration.
One of those is Star Exhibit, the impressive winner of the ATA Stakes last weekend. Previous to that, he ran 2nd to Kia Ora Koutou, and I think he can turn the tables here. He gave them all a start in the ATA, and gave them all a comprehensive beating. We’ll see similar tactics today from barrier 10 but they key will be not getting too far back. His turn of speed is very sharp, and if he is within striking distance at the top of the lane, look out. On the minimum weight he goes on top for me.
As aforementioned, Fathoms Of Gold nearly pulled off one of the greatest upsets in recent memory in the ATA Stakes, after burning away in front to just go down late. With an 8kg weight swing on Perfect Reflection, there’s reason to think he could well win this. I see him more of a place chance, but I think we will see him once again put them all to the test a long way from home.
One horse that I have a lot of time for is Tradesman, but he’s been cursed by poor barrier draws in his last two starts. His run home last start was as good as Perfect Reflection’s, but he simply got way too far back from his wide gate. He draws barrier 14 of 15 here, so I think we will once again see him go back, but he has the talent to win this if things go right.
The only horse to draw outside of him is Respondent in barrier 15, who ran 2nd to Perfect Reflection in the ATA and is one of the horses to receive an 8kg weight swing here. It’s unknown whether he goes forward or back from the barrier, but he won the WA Derby earlier in his career and has been going very well since joining Fred Kersley.
One of the more intriguing runners is Zarantz, another beneficiary of the 8kg weight swing. He draws to get the run of the race in barrier 4 and he has shown positive signs since joining Simon Miller. The big concern is his putrid record of 0 placings from 10 starts at Ascot, which is enough to put me off, but I do get the feeling we’ll see a big run from him here.
Dark Musket and Itsahymn will be thereabouts, but I’m happy to stick with Star Exhibit here at the price and take on the two favourites.
1st STAR EXHIBIT
2nd PERFECT REFLECTION
3rd KIA ORA KOUTOU
4th ZARANTZ
ALWAYS GAMBLE RESPONSIBLY
