2018 NFL Super Bowl Betting Tips
Philadelphia Eagles at New England Patriots (Monday, 10:30am AEDT)
After a long and thrilling regular season and playoff campaign, the 2018 Super Bowl is upon us and Bet King will once again be providing a full preview and tips for the big game below.
The New England Patriots are favourites once again and will look to win back to back titles. Last season, they came from 25 points down in the third quarter to beat the Falcons by 6 points in Overtime. The Eagles love being the underdog and will be keen to end their Super Bowl drought. They have never won the Super Bowl in two attempts throughout history.
Road to the Super Bowl: Patriots
After an epic Super Bowl victory against the Falcons, the Patriots started this season slowly. They lost a home opener against the Chiefs and struggled on defence. With a 2-2 record, they turned things around in the middle of the schedule as they won 8 straight games. They won the AFC East and clinched home field advantage as a result. In the playoffs, they easily beat the Titans 35-14 and struggled against the Jaguars. But another epic comeback led by Brady sees them in another Super Bowl.
Road to the Super Bowl: Eagles
After a 7-9 season in 2016, the Eagles rebounded heavily in 2017 by winning the NFC East. They started the season with an 8-1 record up until the bye. However, a 43-35 victory over the Rams would change their season. Star Quarterback Carson Wentz injured his knee and was ruled out for the season. In his place steps Nick Foles and he did struggle before the playoffs. However, along with their defence, Foles and the Eagles stepped up in the playoffs. They beat the Falcons at home by 5 points and smashed the Vikings by a score of 38-7.
Super Bowl Team Records
New England will play in their 10th Super Bowl this Monday and 8th in the Brady/Belichick era. Overall they have a 5-4 record and won the Super Bowl last season over the Falcons 34-28. The margin has finished under 10 points in all 8 Super Bowls, so we’re expecting another close game here.
The Eagles last Super Bowl appearance was in 2005 against the Patriots. They lost 24-21 in that game and have a 0-2 record in the Super Bowl era. This will be Head Coach Doug Peterson’s first Super Bowl appearance as a coach. He did win a Super Bowl as a player against the Patriots for the Packers in 1997.
Head to Head
Since the 2005 Super Bowl victory, the Patriots are 2-1 against the Eagles. But the Eagles did beat them 35-28 in the last meeting which was at Gillette Stadium.
Super Bowl Prediction
In this matchup, Brady has the experience to lead his side to another Super Bowl victory. He’s been outstanding in the playoffs so far with 5 touchdown passes and 0 interceptions. He was missing his favourite target (Gronkowski) for most of the game against the Jaguars and they still managed to stage a comeback. The key for the Patriots in this matchup is to keep the Eagles D on the field and wear them out. They’ll look to pass rush Brady early on and this will open up the short throws that the Patriots love.
For the Eagles, they’ll need to start well on defence and need to keep the Patriots offence off the field as must as possible. In their 38-7 win over the Vikings, a first-quarter interception was the key and they dominated from that point on. Nick Foles tossed 3 touchdown passes and he’ll need the same output against the Patriots. He should enjoy facing a Patriots pass defence that can give up yards in the air. He’ll look to Alshon Jeffery and Zach Ertz as his main targets. While on the ground, Ajayi and Blount form a strong combination.
Both sides are very even on defence. In the regular season, the Eagles allowed 18.4 points per game and the Patriots were just behind them at 18.5. So this contest will come down to Brady against Foles. Brady is a four-time MVP winner and has won 5 Super Bowls in his career. We’ll give credit to Foles for his performances in the playoffs this season, but Brady is just too experienced in this situation.
They also have added motivation as they send off their departing coordinators (Matt Patricia and Josh McDaniels) after this game. They’ll be looking to end on a high note and we’ll be backing the Patriots to win this.
The value bet in this game is the 1-13 margin at Sportsbet. The Patriots have won their 5 Super Bowls by an average of just 3.8 points. Their largest winning margin is 6 points and that came last season against the Falcons. They also beat the Eagles by 3 points in the last Super Bowl meeting and this should be a similar result.
