2017 Victoria Derby Betting Tips
AAMI Victoria Derby 2500m – Group 1
The Group 1 Victoria Derby is the headline race at Flemington on Saturday, which is the first day of the Melbourne Cup carnival.
The 2500m staying contest for the three-year-olds has attracted a capacity field of 16 runners, and on paper looks to be one of the more open Derby’s in recent times. There is probably as many as 10 runners that could win this without surprising.
There is the potential for a number of horses to go forward early on in the race, but given this the first time many of these three-year-olds have attempted the 2500m distance, we could also see them ridden more conservatively in order to help them run the trip.
Ace High will definitely go forward from the good barrier after he led throughout the win the Group 1 Spring Champion Stakes last start. Tangled and Weather With You could also race prominently, with Ocean’s Fourteen and Greycliffe likely to be handy. Main Stage and Sully have both drawn wide and could potentially roll forward, but it’s hard to be sure what tactics they’ll use. Overall, I suspect we’ll have a very even tempo; there doesn’t look to be breakneck speed in the race, but it’s also not outside the realms of possibility that we have a charge forward in the early stages.
Which horse you end up backing here essentially comes down to which of the two dominant form lines you choose to go with, the Spring Champion Stakes or Geelong Classic. Just about every runner in the race can be tied into those form lines somehow. I’ve gone with the Geelong Classic as the one I’d prefer to follow here, which means I’ll be taking on Ace High and Tangled.
Because of that, I’ve ended up with the New Zealander on top – Weather With You. This horse stepped up from 1800m to 2200m last start and was ridden up on speed when winning the Geelong Classic last start. He fought to the line very dourly, which suggests to me that an extra 300m won’t worry him. He draws well here and Murray Baker has targeted him at this race all along. The only slight query would be whether he would appreciate a softer surface, but I think he represents a good price around the $8 mark.
Ocean’s Fourteen was the horse that ran 2nd to Weather With You in the Geelong Classic, beaten 0.2L after initially being held up in the straight. I liked the way he worked through the line and on that occasion, he was stepping up from 1600m to 2200m. With that run under his belt I’m sure he will have come on plenty, and with a good barrier draw once again here, I think he’s a big chance at double figure odds.
One of the only horses without a connection to either the Geelong Classic or the Spring Champion Stakes is Greycliffe, who bolted in by 4L over 2200m at Seymour last start. The performance was visually impressive, but the time run for his 2200m win was more than two seconds slower than Weather With You’s winning time over the same distance, and his was on a wet track.
Astoria ran 3rd in the Geelong Classic, and interestingly, ran 5th in the Spring Champion Stakes at his previous start. He had excuses after travelling wide throughout that race, and he must stand a chance today based on his run last start.
Eshtiraak, Main Stage and Sully all have claims, and given the pattern of Group 1 results in recent weeks, it’s worth including Wolfe Tone at $151. This horse was beaten 10.8L by Aloisia last start, but when you consider the horse that ran 3rd in that race was beaten 9L, it doesn’t look too bad. The notable thing about Wolfe Tone’s performance was the fact he ran the fastest final sections of the race. He could just be a horse that needs every inch of 2500m. He’s the blowout and worth including in your numbers!
1st WEATHER WITH YOU
2nd OCEAN’S FOURTEEN
3rd ACHE HIGH
4th WOLFE TONE
TIPS ARE SIMPLY THE AUTHOR’s OPINION. ALWAYS GAMBLE RESPONSIBLY
