2017 State of Origin Game 1 Betting Preview

May 29, 2017 by Posted in NRL Tips

Stat Of Origin Game 1
The 2017 State Of Origin series is set to be massive. Queensland have the advantage of two games at Suncorp stadium but a lot of experts are saying New South Wales have the better side on paper, who will come out on top? See our State of Origin Game 1 and series Preview and Betting Tips below.

Queensland vs New South Wales (Wednesday 8pm AEST)

The Maroons have the home soil advantage in game 1 but they will field a side that is vastly different to their champion side that has won 10 of the last 11 series. A couple of players have hung the boots up but to add to that Greg Inglis, Matt Scott and Johnathan Thurston will miss the clash due to injury. It is the first time Thurston will be out of an origin match since he made his debut 36 games ago. His experience and direction around the park will be missed along with his creativity. Meanwhile Inglis leaves a huge hole at left centre and Scott’s metres in the middle of the pack will need to be chewed up by another forward.

New South Wales have thrown a lifeline to Mitchell Pearce who many believe shouldn’t be selected for the side. He has played in 15 origins and has won just four games while he has never been a part of a side that has won a series. However, there are no halfbacks from NSW that have put their hands up to take the number 7 jersey and Pearce has been the in-form half from the state. It makes sense to partner him next to James Maloney who has been the best half in NSW for the last few years and Pearce played alongside him for the Roosters for three seasons and they won a premiership together in 2012. If the Blues lose game 1, expect Pearce to cop most of the flak which suggests he will be feeling a lot of pressure heading into the contest.


For Pearce to have success, he will be relying on his forward pack to lay a platform for him to work off the back of. Luckily for Pearce, the Blues have the better forward pack on paper and they should out-muscle the Maroons on Wednesday night. Newly appointed captain Boyd Cordner will lead from the front and will continue to make inroads on the left edge while Josh Jackson and Tyson Frizell make for a scary and strong backrow. Meanwhile Andrew Fifita can be the best forward in the world when he is switched on and in his last start he was very impressive. He has the ability to change the game with an offload, a barnstorming run or a linebreak/try himself. Their bench is stronger too with Wade Graham, Jack Bird and Jake Trbojecvic offering a lot.

However, despite all of this, the Queensland side still heads into this match as favourites. Largely because it is Queensland and everytime they are written off, they come up with something special. Cooper Cronk and Cameron Smith will be pulling the strings on Wednesday night and there is a reason the Storm are on the top of the table. We believe Queensland made a crucial error in not selecting Billy Slater at fullback and his experience and the attack Darius Boyd would have provided in either centre or wing will be their downfall. New South Wales will come out on top in a close contest.

TIP: New South Wales at the margin (1-12) – $2.50 with Sportsbet

As mentioned above, New South Wales have won just one of the last 11 series’s. However, we believe they will overcome the odds to win this one, despite two games being played in Brisbane.

New South Wales have a star studded line up and if Mitchell Pearce can play to his potential, it is there series to lose. Johnathan Thurston will miss game 1 and it is possible he will miss game 2 and even if he does play, he will have played just one game in 2 months. It is hard to return to full action in the Origin arena.

The forward pack of the Blues should be too powerful for the aging and injured roster of the Queenslanders. Meanwhile if they are able to produce a victory in game one, they will be on home soil for game 2 with the opportunity to clinch it. On the back of our prediction for them to take out the opening game, we are backing them to take out the series 2-1, with the side losing the dead rubber.

TIP: New South Wales win origin series 2-1 – $2.60 with Sportsbet

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