2017 NFL Week 12 Betting Tips
In our NFL Week 12 Preview, we’ll look at the four best bets across the NFL this week. The byes are done and dusted so every team is in action this week. It’s Thanksgiving time in the USA, which means three Friday games this week. We’ll start with the Chargers against the Cowboys.
Los Angeles Chargers at Dallas Cowboys (Friday 8:30am AEDT)
Of the three NFL games on Friday, the Chargers and Cowboys is the closest in the betting so we’ll start in Dallas. The storyline for the Cowboys is the missing piece at running back in Ezekiel Elliot. They’ve been blown apart by the Eagles and Falcons in recent weeks as they both pressured Dak Prescott in the pocket. It won’t get any easier for the Cowboys against the Chargers that just put up 54 points on the Bills. The defence came away with 5 interceptions in the first half alone. The Chargers also have slim chances of making the playoffs and this is a crucial matchup if they want to win the AFC West. Considering they started the season 0-4, it’s been a resurgence since then. With admirable losses against the Patriots and Jaguars in the past few weeks, they can beat the Cowboys on the road.
In the head to head, the Chargers have beaten the Cowboys in the last two meetings overall and have won the last two on the road against them. They have a very impressive record against the spread on the road, going 13-5-1. Overall in their last 6 games, they’re also 5-1 ATS. Phillip Rivers will be looking forward to his first Thanksgiving game and he’ll likely enjoy throwing the ball against Cowboys secondary. For the Cowboys, their season sits in the balance at 5-5 and they have struggled at home this season, even with Elliot in the backfield. So it’s hard to see them improving against the Chargers this week and the value has to be the line for LA. At CrownBet, they’re paying $2.03 at -2 points and we’re all over it.
TIP: Chargers -2 – $2.03 at CrownBet
New Orleans Saints at Los Angeles Rams (Monday 8:25am AEDT)
The 8-2 Saints are riding an eight-game winning streak and face the 7-3 Rams on the road. This is one of the best matchups of the week so we can’t wait. In the Quarterback battle, youngster Jared Goff will face veteran Drew Brees. Goff struggled against the Vikings D last week and he’ll need to step up against the Saints. While for Brees, he led the Saints out of a huge hole in the fourth quarter against the Redskins as they were down 31-16. But they scored the next 18 points and won in overtime.
In the betting for this game, we’ll be looking at the over total points. Both sides are incredibly even in the team stats. They both average 30 points per game and allow around 18-19 points on defence. The trend in this matchup is also the over total. It’s saluted in 17 of the last 23 games when the Saints play on the road against the Rams. The Saints are 9-4 against the over total and the Rams have scored 33 points in consecutive home games. They’ll be looking to rebound after a tough game against the Vikings as well. For the Saints, it’s tough to win 9 straight games in the NFL so the best value bet is the total points.
TIP: Over 53 points – $1.92 at Palmerbet
Green Bay Packers at Pittsburgh Steelers – Monday 12:30 pm (AEDT)
At the beginning of the season, this matchup between the Steelers and Packers was pencilled in as one of the games to watch. However, with the injury to Packers QB Aaron Rodgers, this is now a massive mismatch in the Steelers favour. Taking out one bad performance by Big Ben against the Jaguars in Week 5, the Steelers juggernaut has dominated teams at home this season. Last week, they trashed the Titans 40-17 and have won by 14+ in 3 of 4 home games. There’s no value in the head to head for this game, so backing the Steelers to win by a large margin is the best bet. Especially since the Packers were shutout by the Ravens D last week. Brett Hundley is way out of his depth at QB and the Steelers D will be the best he’s faced in his short career. Last week, he tossed 3 interceptions against the Ravens and we can see a similar result against the Steelers. They also picked QB Marcus Mariota 4 times in the blowout win over the Titans.
In the head to head, the Packers actually haven’t won against the Steelers on the road dating back to 1970. They have only met on 4 occasions in Pittsburgh since then and the Steelers are 4-0. In the end, the Steelers are 8-2 this season and they’re playing for home-field advantage in the AFC. Their defence is going to enjoy facing Hundley. The combination between Antonio Bryant and Big Ben is firing as well. So we can’t see the Packers getting close and the Steelers to win by -14 at Sportsbet is the best bet here.
TIP: Steelers -14 – $1.96 at Sportsbet
Houston Texans at Baltimore Ravens – Tuesday 12:30 pm (AEDT)
In the Tuesday feature NFL game, the Ravens host the Texans in Baltimore. The Ravens are sitting at 5-5 on the season and will be looking to continue their defensive dominance. Over their past 3 games, the Ravens have kept the Packers and Dolphins scoreless, while scoring 63 points. Last week, they returned from the bye after a tough road loss and went to Lambeau Field to bully the Packers 23-0. They return home this week and thrashed the Dolphins 40-0 on a short week in their previous home game. So the Texans offence will be challenged. They did put up 31 points on the Cardinals last week and Tom Savage had his best game under centre after taking over for DeShaun Watson. However, comparing the Cardinals D to Baltimore’s D is unfair and Savage will find less time in the pocket this week. The Texans were also well beaten in their last road game, losing 33-7 against the Rams.
In the betting stats, the Ravens have covered the line in 6 of their last 9 home games. They also have a 7-2 record in those games and dominate the Texans in the head to head, also going 7-2. The Texans struggle on the road, going 1-5 in their last 6 games. The difference will be on defence where the Ravens concede just 17 points per game compared to the Texans 26 ppg. The Texans are also missing arguably three of their best players in DeShaun Watson (injury), JJ Watt (injury) and Brian Cushing (suspension). Ultimately this will cost them on the road against a tough team like the Ravens. They’re in the AFC wildcard race and likely can’t win the AFC North. So they need to continue winning for a chance at the wild-card. In the end, this will be enough motivation and we can see them covering the line.
