2017 NFL Playoffs – Conference Playoffs Betting Tips
Welcome to the penultimate BetKing NFL betting column of the season. Conference playoffs weekend as the final four teams duke it out for a spot in Houston and a shot at a Super Bowl victory.
Last week we saw two cracking games with the Cowboys and Packers game going down as one of the all-time great playoff games.
The Super Bowl market currently reads something like this.
New England $2.40
Atlanta $3.60
Green Bay $5
Pittsburgh $5.50
We see no value on the board as it stands. You are better off just following the team you like twice and perhaps fading one of the contenders you think won’t win two more games in a row.
Onto the slate and analysis for this weekend!
Green Bay Packers at Atlanta Falcons (Monday 7.05am AEDT)
Two of the hottest quarterbacks at present and two of the down to the wire MVP candidates. The Packers have won eight straight after seemingly looking shot to bits in early November. Atlanta on the other hand, has been dreaming of this home conference playoff since they tied up the division way back in mid-December.
That Falcons offense at home has been lethal. They rank number one overall for points, fifth for rushing yards and third in passing yards. They’ve been the best team to watch all season for the neutral supporters and are a perfect TV match-up for a rampaging Aaron Rodgers.
The Packers season has been a tale of two stories. It was almost as if they flicked the switch when Aaron Rodgers signaled that they’d run the slate some eight games ago. He wasn’t wrong! They’ve made plays on defense and won the turnover battle but Rodgers is the real story here. His play has been incredible and once again holds the key to victory.
At home we give the slight edge to the Falcons who have been hot starters all year long. We expect that trend to continue and the match points total of 60 is around the money.
TIP: Atlanta Falcons First Half handicap -3 – $1.89 at Sportsbet
Confidence level: 75%
Pittsburgh Steelers at New England Patriots (Monday 10:40am AEDT)
Pittsburgh is the one team all of the Patriots fans have been the most worried about all season. They certainly haven’t been the second best AFC team all year but they’ve had the highest ceiling out of all the Patriots competitors.
The Steelers couldn’t stay healthy early in the season but have found their groove in recent times and behind the incredible play of Le’Veon Bell look a legitimate Super Bowl threat. Two of the Sports all-time greats at quarterback will face off, both Roethlisberger and Brady have terrific playoff records. Brady perhaps has the slightly better defense this time around but Ben has more of a complete offense.
This game could be one or lost on the sidelines where the Patriots have a clear advantage. Mike Tomlin is a middle tier coach on our figures whereas Belichick is the best in the business.
Tom Brady simply does not lose home playoff games and you’d be brave to suggest it’s going to happen here despite some 50-50 performances from Brady against top-tier defenses. Pittsburgh are solid but certainly not a ‘great’ defense and it’s still very possible to throw the ball deep on the Steelers secondary.
TIP: New England Patriots -5.5 – $1.89 at Sportsbet
Confidence level: 75%
