2017 NFL Playoffs: Conference Championships Betting Tips
There’s just four teams left in the race for the Super Bowl and we’ll provide a betting preview below of the NFL action this week. In the first game on Monday morning, the AFC has the favoured Patriots up against the Jaguars. While in Philadelphia, the Eagles host the Vikings. We’ve looked through the odds and have found two best bets for the NFL Championship Round.
Jacksonville Jaguars at New England Patriots (Monday, 7:05am AEDT)
In the AFC Title game, the Jacksonville Jaguars will be aiming for another upset and their first victory at Gillette Stadium in franchise history. But they’ll need to overcome the heavily favoured Patriots. The Jaguars will be confident of an upset after they produced a 28-7 lead against the Steelers and held on 45-42 in the end. Leonard Fournette was the key player with 3 rushing touchdowns. Blake Bortles made some key throws and the defence held strong in the fourth quarter.
Meanwhile, New England easily beat the Titans at home 35-14. Tom Brady carved up the Titans D on his way to 3 touchdown passes. While on defence, the Pats had 8 sacks to complete the team performance on both sides of the ball. The Patriots are now 8-0 in the playoffs and have scored 34+ points in their last four playoff wins. The offence is benefiting from a strong running game led by Deon Lewis and James White is proving to be a playoff performer near the endzone. Chris Hogan is healthy at wide-receiver and Gronk is unstoppable. Brady is most the experienced QB left in this year’s race for the Super Bowl and that’s going to be the major difference between the sides.
The Jaguars defence still allowed 42 points and their struggles on the road could comeback to hurt them. For example, they’ve now allowed 40+ points to the Steelers and 49ers in two of their last three away games. That doesn’t sound good when you’re facing Tom Brady at home. The only thing that could upset the Pats is a quick start and a dominant pass rush. But we can’t see that happening and the Patriots will cover the line here. They beat them 51-17 two seasons ago and the fact is the Patriots are 9-1 against them in the history of the NFL. They’re also 5-0 ATS in their last 5 home games and 5-0 ATS in the playoffs at home. They’ve covered the line in 5 of 6 at home against the Jaguars. The key is the Jaguars aren’t the best passing team and we can’t see Bortles outplaying Brady in the air.
Key Betting Stats:
Patriots are 41-6 at home since 2013
Patriots are 36-17 against the over total at home
Patriots are 23-5 as home favourites since 2015
Patriots are 57-10 after a win at home since 2010
Jaguars are 3-11 as away underdogs since 2015
Jaguars are 7-18 on the road
Jaguars are 1-9 against the Patriots
OVER total is 8-3 in the Patriots last 11 home games and 4-2 in the Jaguars last 6 games.
TIP: Patriots -9 – $2.03 at Sportsbet
Minnesota Vikings at Philadelphia Eagles (Monday, 10:40am AEDT)
The spot in the Super Bowl from the NFC will be between the number 1 seed Eagles and number 2 seed Vikings. Last round, the Eagles were super impressive against the Falcons at home and proved their underdog status wrong. But they’ll start as underdogs again, despite the win and home field advantage against Minnesota. While for the Vikings, well they pulled off an incredible last second play to beat the Saints 29-24. The defence let them down in the second half after leading 17-0 at half time. Which they can’t afford against the Eagles.
This matchup pits former Rams QBs Case Keenum (Vikings) against Nick Foles (Eagles). Foles played one of his best games in his career last week as he made 23 of 30 throws and didn’t turn the ball over. He has one of the best running attacks in the NFC and that will be the key against the Vikings. The Vikings run defence is ranked 2nd in the NFL behind their opponent, the Eagles. They hardly let the Saints running attack into the game and it’s hard to see the Eagles having better luck. While for Case Keenum, he had an up and down game against the Saints. He went 25 for 40 with 318 yards and had a touchdown with a costly interception. He’ll look to spread the ball against the Eagles middle ranked pass defence.
The likes of Diggs and Thielen are his favourite targets and they should see space. In the end, the Eagles will love the fact that they’re underdogs at home once again. So the line of +3 points is achievable. The two sides match up similarly on defence and they have backup QBs in action. The Eagles are also 3-1 against the Vikings at home and beat them 21-10 in the last meeting here. They’ve covered the line in 8 of the last 9 meetings at home against the Vikings. So we’ll take them to cover the line and possibly win this game. The under total is also worth a play with two dominant defences in action. It has a nice trend in this matchup.
Key Betting Stats:
Eagles are 10-1 in their last 11 home games
Eagles are 7-1 ATS at home against the Vikings
Eagles are 5-1 against the under at home and 6-2 overall in their last 8 games
Vikings are 6-1 in their last 7 road games
UNDER total is 4-1 in this matchup when it’s played in Philadelphia.
