2017 Memsie Stakes Betting Tips

Caulfield Race 7 – New Zealand Bloodstock Memsie Stakes 1400m – Group 1

The Memsie Stakes is the first Group 1 of the season and we have a star-studded field set to line up over the 1400m. Of the 12 runners engaged, eight are Group 1 winners.

I’m expecting the Caulfield track to play perfectly with a Good 4 surface and the rail out 6m. If anything, it could be beneficial to be on the rail and up on speed, but I think by this time of the day the track will be playing evenly.

The pace angle of the race looks obvious here. Charmed Harmony will roll forward as he did last start and dictate things at his own leisure. Vega Magic will camp right on his heels from barrier 3, with Tosen Stardom, I Am A Star, and even Single Gaze potentially landing in prominent spots. Black Heart Bart will get a dream run from barrier 5, as will Le Romain from barrier 6, while Hey Doc will need a good ride from barrier 1.

The more I look at the race, the more I keep coming back to one horse and that’s Vega Magic. I really think this horse could be a star. His first up win was enormous, carrying 60.5kg, travelling three-wide the trip on the pace, and booting away to beat a potential Group 1 quality horse. The gap to 3rd was over 4L, and that tells you how good the first two are. He’s won his only start over 1400m and has won three of his four races when second up from a spell. The draw should see him land in the box seat, Craig Williams takes the ride, and there really are just no negatives with him. He’s short enough at $2.60 but everything lines up for him to win here.

Black Heart Bart has been aimed at this race all along and the stable have said for weeks that he will be peaking for this race. He’s finished in the top two at six of his eight starts when second up, and his record at this track and distance is phenomenal. He’s got four wins from five starts over the 1400m at Caulfield, including multiple Group 1 victories, and from barrier 5 he will get absolutely everything go his way. My slight concern is whether he is as good as he was at the beginning of the year, and whether that Brisbane campaign took something out of him. He also pulled up mildly lame first up, so there’s a genuine question mark over him. He’ll need to be at his absolute best to win.

Another multiple Group 1 winner is Le Romain. He’s raced four times over 1400m for four second placings, which begs the question of whether this is actually his best distance. From barrier 6 I see him landing alongside Black Heart Bart in the run, and he’s already a Group 1 winner going the Melbourne direction, so there’s no concerns there. But he hasn’t had a start at Caulfield yet, and Caulfield can be a slightly tricky track, especially for a Sydney horse. He’s got definite claims, but the genuine query at the distance is enough for me to avoid him.

Hey Doc is flying but he takes on his stiffest test here. His second up record is fantastic, and he’s won his only race over 1400m, but he’s never won from four starts at Caulfield. My other concern is that I think his first up win was a touch flattering based on his position on the track. The outside rail was a monorail that day, and he just so happened to land in the best spot. Not taking anything away from his win, but he had things go his way and he’ll need to go to a new level to beat this field.

Yankee Rose opened at an untouchable price around the $9 mark, and although she’s rightly drifted out to $12 now, I still won’t be backing her at all. She’s first up since last November when she was beaten 20L in the Oaks over 2500m. She has had a difficult preparation, has been in work 6 months, and comes into an extremely hot WFA Group 1 over 1400m first up since that run 303 days ago.

For those reasons, I have legitimate queries over some of the main dangers to Vega Magic here, and I just can’t find any excuses for him here, so he is the horse to beat without a doubt.

1st VEGA MAGIC
2nd BLACK HEART BART
3rd LE ROMAIN
4th HEY DOC

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