2017 Emirates Stakes Betting Tips
The Group 1 Emirates Stakes is one of two feature races on the card at Flemington this Saturday for the final day of the carnival.
There’s a field of 13 assembled for the 2000m contest, and I think we’ll see this run at a fairly decent tempo.
Cliff’s Edge will roll straight to the front from barrier 10 with only 51kg on his back, and Folkswood will follow him across from barrier 15. Gailo Chop, another runner for Darren Weir, is also a frontrunner, so I suspect we will see him box seat with the stablemate expected to lead. Weir won’t want them taking each other on, but it may not matter if Samovare is taken forward from her wide barrier with the blinkers on for the first time. Odeon should get a great run, along with Happy Clapper and Tosen Stardom from their soft draws. It’s Somewhat could go forward or back from his wide draw, but Sense Of Occasion will definitely go back, along with Harlem, Gingernuts, So Si Bon and The Taj Mahal.
I’ve got this down to three main chances.
Happy to be in the corner of the Kiwi, Gingernuts, who was destined to run in the Caulfield Cup but was forced to tackle this race due to a key lead up race being washed out. He ran 2nd last start in a Group 1 over this distance in New Zealand, and back in the Autumn won the Group 1 Rosehill Guineas in Sydney, also over this distance. He hasn’t had a hard preparation thus far, whereas some runners here are deep into a campaign. He’ll get the tempo on to suit him here and at $6 represents a great price.
Tosen Stardom is the clear value in the race at double figure odds. He was a Group 1 winner two starts ago but just didn’t have the tempo on to suit him last start in the Cantala Stakes. He looks to have a genuine enough tempo to suit him here though, and gets a gun run from barrier 4. Steps up to 2000m for the first time this prep and if he produces his best, he’ll probably win this.
Folkswood won the Cranbourne Cup at his first start in Australia, and ran 3rd to Winx in the Cox Plate last start. That’s traditionally the best lead up race for the Emirates Stakes, and he should be able to get a good run on speed despite drawing wide. We’ve seen how successful trainer Charlie Appleby has been with his runners in Australia, including Folkswood, and it’d be a mistake to rule him out of this.
I’ll be taking on Cliff’s Edge who lines up against older horses here and won’t be able to run the race to suit. Happy Clapper is a big query at this distance and comes off a flogging at the hands of Winx, so I’ll be steering clear of him. The Taj Mahal could be one at big odds to include – he’s had early market support and comes out of the world’s best stable. Odeon another to include, with Gailo Chop sure to run a good race.
1st GINGERNUTS
2nd TOSEN STARDOM
3rd FOLKSWOOD
4th ODEON
