2017 Cox Plate Betting Tips
Moonee Valley Race 9 – Group 1 Cox Plate 2040m
The $3million Group 1 Cox Plate headlines a huge weekend of horse racing in Australia, with superstar mare Winx looking to equal Kingston Town’s record of three wins in the iconic race.
Winx takes on eight rivals in the form of Happy Clapper, Gailo Chop, Humidor, Kaspersky, Folkswood, Seaburge, Hardham and Royal Symphony.
I think the race will be run at a very steady pace but from the 600m onwards Winx will really put them to the sword when she ramps up the pressure. Gailo Chop will lead, with Folkswood also likely to roll forward and sit outside him. Winx should be prominent with Hardham, while Humidor will be ridden quieter today than he was in the Caulfield Cup, as will Kaspersky. Happy Clapper could go forward or back, with Seaburge and Royal Symphony likely to settle at the rear.
There’s no doubt that Winx wins, but it’s more about who runs 2nd from a betting perspective!
There’s plenty of great betting markets available for the race. Topbetta are offering Winx at $5 for new customers only, with a max bet of $25. Pointsbet are offering Winx to win by 2L+ at $2.00, Ladbrokes have several different markets available for the race.
We’ll focus on who can run 2nd and look to find the winner of the “Without Winx” market.
I’ll be backing two horses in that market, namely Gailo Chop and Folkswood, who both come up around the $4.50 mark.
I think Gailo Chop will be able to lead this at a leisurely pace, and the stable have really done a tremendous job to get him back firing on all cylinders after a lengthy injury. He’s a winner of six races from nine starts over 2000m, and I think he will still be there fighting on at the end.
Folkswood, on the other hand, won the Cranbourne Cup easily at his first Australian start. No doubt that’s a low form race to consider for a Cox Plate, but he was tough and showed sustained speed when the pressure went on in that race. He is open to improvement and Kerrin McEvoy chose to ride him over the three-year-old Royal Symphony. He can settle up on the speed and in a high-pressure last 600m, he could be the one that fights off the others for 2nd.
I’m happy to take on Humidor because I have queries over his ability at a tight-turning Moonee Valley track, especially given his tendency to hang in. He drops back to the 2000m after a gut-buster in the Caulfield Cup a week ago, but does get the blinkers on for the first time. I see this being a bit of a sit-sprint instead of a stead build-up, which isn’t going to suit Humidor.
Happy Clapper is racing in terrific form but I still have reservations over his ability at 2000m. I think he’s a better 1600m horse and it’s hard to know where he gets in the run here. He could very well prove me wrong but I’d prefer to be with horses that are proven over this distance.
The sole three-year-old Royal Symphony carries just 49.5kg and he looks to be crying out for 2000m. He has a similar profile to Shamus Award and even Yankee Rose last year, but I’m always keen to take on three-year-olds having their first start in Open company against older horses. He’s going to be coming from a long way back, so while I think he can run 3rd, I’ll take him on for 2nd.
Seaburge is the blowout in the market but did show some semblance of form last start so I wouldn’t completely discount him.
Happy to back both Gailo Chop and Folkswood in the “Without Winx” market, and take advantage of all the other offers available from different bookies.
1st WINX
2nd GAILO CHOP
3rd FOLKSWOOD
4th ROYAL SYMPHONY
TIPS ARE SIMPLY THE AUTHOR’s OPINION. ALWAYS GAMBLE RESPONSIBLY
