2017 Caulfield Cup Betting Tips

Caulfield Race 8 – Group 1 Caulfield Cup 2400m

The $3 million Group 1 Caulfield Cup is the feature race in Australia this weekend, with a field of 17 runners set to line up over the 2400m at Caulfield.

Among those 17 runners are 10 Group 1 winners and a host of international raiders, making this year’s race particularly exciting.

The Caulfield track will be very firm and is rated a Good 3 with the rail out 6m. The meeting at Caulfield on Wednesday tended to favour those on the rail, so hopefully with the inside section unavailable with today’s rail position we should see a more even track.

Tactics will be key today. It’s been announced that Sir Isaac Newton will be leading from his wide barrier, in what is purely a move by the stable to ensure the race is run at a good tempo for Johannes Vermeer. Jon Snow, Boom Time, Single Gaze and possibly Marmelo will all be prominent. We’ve seen Marmelo lead previously in Europe, but we’ve also seen him ridden cold, so it will be interesting to see what Hugh Bowman decides to do from barrier 10 in the early stages. Johannes Vermeer will be in the first five runners in running, with Harlem, Hardham and Ventura Storm likely to settle midfield. Humidor maps to get a terrific run, Lord Fandango will attempt to slot in along with Amelie’s Star, while Bonneval’s connections don’t want her too far back so Kerrin McEvoy will need to weave some magic to take up a good position from her wide barrier. Abbey Marie typically gets back in her races, as does Inference, and both Wicklow Brave and He’s Our Rokkii are likely to be ridden dead cold from their wide barriers.
I’ve got two horses clearly on top from the rest of the field here, and they are the favourite Johannes Vermeer, and Ventura Storm.

Johannes Vermeer made his Australian debut last start, and he absolutely flew home from the back of the field to run 2nd to Gailo Chop in the Group 1 Caulfield Stakes over 2000m. The performance was particularly impressive given very few runners made significant ground throughout the day, with the track favouring those up on speed. He drops 4.5kg from that run and gets in here very well weighted. His European form is very strong and the European stayers, as we know, are normally superior to the Australians. He’s on the quick back-up here, which he’s done twice before in his career and has won on both occasions, so it looks to be a well thought out plan of attack. His trainer Aiden O’Brien is the best in the world, and he’ll get everything run to suit him today so he is a deserved favourite and clear top pick.

The value in the race for mine is Ventura Storm, who has had the ideal preparation leading into today’s race. He’s had three runs so far; first up and second up were both sound without much luck, and he then bumped into Winx last start when finishing 2nd in the Group 1 Turnbull Stakes. He comes into this at his fourth run back from a spell and up to his pet distance of 2400m. Three of his six career wins have come around this distance range, including his Group 1 success in Italy. His form stacks up, he’s drawn beautifully and Damien Oliver takes the ride so I expect him to be a huge player at double figure odds.

Humidor hasn’t done much wrong and I won’t be losing on him today, but I can’t have him on top. His win two starts ago in the Makybe Diva Stakes was blistering, but he was slightly underwhelming last start behind Winx. That race was of completely different complexion, however, as the tempo was very slow and he’s a horse that needs a hot tempo. He will get a good enough tempo for a 2400m race today and with a perfect run in midfield, he will definitely be in the finish. My only query is whether he prefers the big spaces of Flemington rather than the tight corners of Caulfield.

The big unknown is Marmelo. He’s obviously being set for the Melbourne Cup in a couple weeks’ time, with his best form coming over further than the 2400m of today’s race. He still shouldn’t be underestimated in this based on the strength of his European form. With a good run in the race, he’s a horse worth including at big odds.
Harlem is not without a chance. He gets in very light and has the blinkers applied for the first time. From barrier 1 he will sit forward of midfield and if he’s able to reproduce a similar performance to his win from two starts ago, he’ll be a live chance.

I have to take on New Zealand mare Bonneval today. She pulled up lame last week and was found to be lame during the week as well, so with those issues hanging over her head so close to a major race it is cause for concern.

1st JOHANNES VERMEER
2ND VENTURA STORM
3rd HUMIDOR
4th MARMELO

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