2017 AFL Round 14 Betting Tips
Decent week for us in AFL tipping last weekend as we went 2 from 4 including a good $2.40 win on St Kilda by 1-39. With the bye rounds over now we are back to 9 games for the week and Round 14 features the last Thursday night game of the year. See our preview and tips for the key games of the weekend below.
Adelaide vs Hawthorn (Thursday 7.50pm AEST)
Both Adelaide and Hawthorn will be coming off a bye for the Round 14 opener on Thursday night at Adelaide Oval. The ladder leaders went into their bye with a dominant 57-point win over the Saints while Hawthorn succumbed to the Suns in a disappointing loss.
Adelaide will come into this one as strong favourites and with good reason. They have still lost just one game at Adelaide Oval all year and are the highest scoring team in the competition averaging 2 more goals per game than any other team.
Hawthorn are the fourth lowest scoring team in the comp, in front of only the Western Bulldogs, Fremantle and Carlton. Even if they were somehow able to make this a scrap, which they will inevitably try to do, we can’t see them keeping the Crows under 100 at home. The Hawks have only scored over 100 twice this year so we can’t see them having enough firepower to win this one.
TIP: Adelaide OVER 118.5 points – $1.86 at Ladbrokes
Sydney vs Essendon (Friday 7.50pm AEST)
Sydney will come into their Round 14 match after a season defining win over Richmond on the weekend. After trailing by as much as five goals, the Swans turned it around to keep their finals hopes alive and overcome the Tigers by 9 points.
Every game from here on out is crucial for the Swans, who now sit just four points behind a host of teams fighting for the last few spots in the eight. They come up against Essendon this week who will have the advantage of having the week off through their bye. The Dons were extremely impressive in their Round 12 win over Port Adelaide but will have to travel to Sydney for this one. They have only won one game away from home this year, with 5 of their 6 wins coming at Etihad Stadium.
Sydney will be without Zak Jones after the defender was suspended for one game while Essendon are boasting one of the best injury lists in the league currently with Darcy Parish being the only niggle heading into the game. After a great win on the weekend, however, the Swans should be full of confidence at home, knowing that their season is on the line with every game, back them to win in a close one here.
TIP: Sydney to win 1-39 – $2.10 at Sportsbet
Collingwood vs Port Adelaide (Saturday 1.45pm AEST)
Collingwood will have the advantage of the week off here while Port Adelaide will be bouncing back from a good but expected win over the Lions at home. Collingwood are another team in the position of being just behind the fight for 8th spot while Port Adelaide can cement themselves in the top eight with a win here.
Port Adelaide look to be relatively injury free, with Jared Polen being the only best 22 player set to miss the match while Collingwood are still battling a lot of injuries. Jamie Elliot will undergo a test after missing the Queen’s Birthday clash in Round 12 while Tyson Goldsack, Ben Reid, Travis Varcoe and Daniel Wells are all under injury clouds.
Tough game to pick but we think the Power will want to bounce back in Melbourne after a disappointing game against Essendon in their last visit. They’ll need to win games in Melbourne if they want to go deep into September and a game against a banged-up Collingwood side should be the perfect opportunity. We are predicting it to be close but the Power should be too strong having won 4 of their last 5 against the Pies.
TIP: Port Adelaide 1-39 – $2.30 at Sportsbet
West Coast vs Melbourne (Saturday 7.40pm AEST)
Melbourne sent a strong message to the AFL with their win over the Bulldogs on the weekend. Their tackling and pressure was absolutely ferocious as they trounced the premiers by 57 points at Etihad Stadium.
They’ll travel to West Coast this weekend to take on the Eagles who had a good win over the Cats in the round opener on Thursday night. The Eagles will have two extra days rest here and the home game which will be a massive advantage, especially given the style that Melbourne need to play to win. Melbourne will likely get ruckman Max Gawn back for the clash, which will be a massive boost
By nearly every major statistical category, Melbourne have proven themselves to be one of the most dominant teams in the league so far, this season. They have won their last there against the Suns, Pies and Dogs and this test against the Eagles could be another statement game. While the short break takes away some of our confidence in them, we think they should have enough talent to cover a 15.5 line here.
TIP: Melbourne +15.5 – $1.92 at Ladbrokes
Richmond vs Carlton (Sunday 3.20pm AEST)
Another heartbreaking loss on the weekend means 4 of the 5 losses the Tigers have suffered this year have been by a combined total of 19 points. After leading the whole day, they let up against the Swans to go down by 9 points and they come up against a rampaging Carlton team in the game of the round this week.
The Blues have beaten the Giants and Suns in their last two matches and can amazingly put themselves in top eight contention with another win here. The return of Liam Jones in defence has been great for the Blues while their midfielders in Marc Murphy, Bryce Gibbs and Patrick Cripps seem to have taken it to another level. They also boast arguably the most dynamic running and ball using half backs in the league in Sam Docherty and Kade Simpson.
It’s a massive game for the Tigers, who will ruin all of their good work from the start of the season with a loss. While they sit just one win behind Geelong in third place, the eveness of the league this season means that a loss could see them slide as far as 13th. The Blues are a much improved side from their Round 1 clash and this has the feeling of a blockbuster as both sides have so much on the line.
TIP: Either team under 15 points – $2.63 at Sportsbet
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TIPS ARE SIMPLY THE AUTHOR’s OPINION. ALWAYS GAMBLE RESPONSIBLY
