2017 AFL Round 11 Betting Tips

May 30, 2017 by Posted in AFL Tips

The first of the 2017 AFL bye rounds commence this weekend so we only have limited games to enjoy over the next three rounds. We’ll still attempt to find some value, however, starting with our Round 11 AFL Preview & Betting Tips below.


Round 11 bye teams: Brisbane, Carlton, Melbourne, St Kilda, Sydney, Western Bulldogs

Port Adelaide vs Hawthorn (Thursday 7.20pm AEST)
Port Adelaide suffered a last second heartbreaking loss to Geelong at Simonds Stadium last Thursday night and will back it up with another round opening game this Thursday against the Hawks. They’ll get a much-needed return to Adelaide Oval in Round 10 after the game in Geelong which followed their trip to China two weeks before.

Hawthorn were 40 point underdogs at the bounce against Sydney on Friday night and ended up 6 point victors in a win that could completely turn their season around. The Hawks are now 4-6 on the season, just win one behind Port Adelaide in 8th position but the Power have a game in hand and can jump as high as 4th with a win here.

The Power will welcome the return to Adelaide Oval here after a tough game in Geelong last week. Besides a loss to cross town rivals Adelaide, the Power are undefeated at home this year and while the Hawks showed heart in Sydney last week we expect the Power to be a little too strong here.

TIP: Port Adelaide 1-39 – $2.30 at Sportsbet

Geelong vs Adelaide (Friday, 7.50pm AEST)
First plays third on Friday night as the Cats take on Adelaide in their third game in a row at Simonds Stadium. The Coastal Stadium has been confirmed as a fortress for the Cats after two great wins over the Bulldogs and Power over the last two weeks, but they’ll get arguably their toughest test on Friday night when they take on ladder leaders Adelaide.

After consecutive losses in rounds seven and eight the Crows have dominated the Lions and Dockers in the last two weeks by 80 and 100 points respectively. The wins reaffirmed Adelaide as the Premiership favourites and a win in Geelong would only strengthen their case.

Geelong’s midfield and particularly their midfield pressure has improved exponentially over the past two weeks with the inclusion of Scott Selwood and the return to form of Paddy Dangerfield. It’s an extremely tough game to pick down in Geelong but although they secured two great wins in over the Dogs and Power, they weren’t exactly convincing. We expect the Crows to win in a tight one here.

TIP: Adelaide 1-39 – $2.40 at Sportsbet

Greater Western Sydney vs Essendon (Saturday, 2.35pm AEST)
Essendon were valiant in their loss to the Tigers in the annual Dream Time game on Saturday night. Joe Daniher continued his good streak of form with another three goals and is slowly stamping himself as one of the best key forwards in the competition. The big man now has 29 goals on the season so far and sits 5th on the Coleman table behind only Josh Kennedy, Lance Franklin, Jeremy Cameron and Eddie Betts.

After a loss to the Saints back in Round 7, the Giants have won their last three games by a total of 14 points including one massive away win over West Coast on the weekend. They’ll welcome the return to Spotless Stadium this week, which will be their third game there in four weeks and could all but secure a finals birth with wins over Essendon and Carlton before their bye.

Essendon have been competitive in nearly all of their games so far, this season, and are arguably a year ahead of schedule in their rebuild. The fact of the matter is they are still in a rebuild though, and are still shedding some weight of the pre-scandal era in the likes of Brent Stanton. The Giants look to be back in form and should win at home despite a fair injury list.

TIP: Greater Western Sydney -28.5 – $1.92 at Ladbrokes

North Melbourne vs Richmond (Saturday, 7.25pm AEST)
The Tigers bounced back from a heartbreaking stretch of games which saw them lose against the Bulldogs, Dockers and Giants by a combined 10 points to beat the Bombers by 15 points on Saturday night. The return of Dion Prestia and Shane Edwards has bolstered the Tigers midfield and with Dustin Martin in Brownlow form, they should be tough to beat here.

North Melbourne are on the back of two wins albeit over lacklustre competition in Melbourne and Carlton. The 14-point win was highlighted by Todd Goldstein’s utter dominance of Cam Pederson in the ruck while Shaun Higgins was the shining light in the Carlton game with 27 disposals and 2 goals.

Another tough game to pick here but the Blues impressed at Etihad in their 5-point loss to the Dogs in Round 7 and the smaller ground should suit their high-pressure style. Ben Brown has been a telling factor in the majority of the North Melbourne wins this year but should be limited by Alex Rance this week. Pick the Tigers in another close one here.

TIP: Richmond 1-39 – $2.37 at Sportsbet

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