2017 AFL: Grand Final Betting Tips

September 26, 2017 by Posted in AFL Tips

The 2017 AFL season reaches its crescendo this weekend with the Grand Final to be played on Saturday afternoon between the Adelaide Crows and the Richmond Tigers. We preview the big game and give our betting tips below.

Adelaide Crows vs Richmond Tigers (Saturday 2.30pm AEST MCG)

What a surprising year it’s been for the Richmond Football Club, who went from finishing 13th on the ladder in 2016 to making this year’s Grand Final in spectacular fashion with a win over the Giants on the weekend. Star midfielder Dustin Martin capped off an amazing home and away season with a Brownlow medal on Monday night and he’ll need to be massive on Saturday if the Tigers hope to win their first premiership since 1980.

The Crows have been the dominant team in the competition throughout the 2017 season and have opened as five-point favourites to win the Grand Final. Their team is led by a star studded forward line who combined to make up the highest scoring team in the competition this season and will be hard to stop on Saturday. They also boast a quality midfield with the likes of Rory Sloane and the Crouch brothers running the show through the centre of the ground.

The two teams met back in Round 6 of the home and away season, with Adelaide piling on 16 goals to 4 after quarter time to steamroll the Tigers to the tune of 76 points. That game was played at Adelaide Oval, giving the Crows a massive advantage, but the Grand Final will obviously be at the MCG, where Richmond fans are expected to come out in droves. The Tiger faithful outnumbered the Giants supporters 10-1 at the G on the weekend and it will probably be a similar turnout for this game.


The Crows will rely on their hot start again in this game. They have outscored their opponents heavily in their two finals so far, scoring a combined 19.14 to 6.13 in the first halves of their games against the Giants and Cats. The Tigers, on the other hand, have been second half specialists, generally overcoming deficits to steam roll their opponents in the 3rd quarter.

Richmond skipper Trent Cotchin was lucky to escape suspension after a hit on Dylan Shiel in the preliminary final saw him facing the match review panel. He escaped a ban though and will line-up in the midfield on Saturday afternoon.

If the game was in Adelaide we’d have no problem picking the Crows to win this one but at the MCG, where the Tigers have played some inspired footy of late, should even up the contest a touch. We still think that given Adelaide’s dominance throughout the season and finals so far that a 5 point line is a bit of an insult to them going into this one. We are happy to take the favourites here to win by at least a goal.

TIP: Adelaide -5.5 – $1.92 at Sportsbet


As for the Norm Smith Medal, we would like to think the best player on the ground by a stretch is Dustin Martin but to pick him would be going against our tip for Adelaide to win. Adelaide probably don’t possess an out and out matchwinner like Martin and their midfield brigade sort of blend into one another and are sometimes missable. What they do possess is a couple of forwards capable of kicking bags of goals.

Unlike the Brownlow, which is always won by top class midfielders, the majority of the time the Norm Smith is won by players who avoid the tag and can turn a game with pace or creativity. Jason Johannisen, Cyril Rioli, Ryan O’Keefe, Paul Chapman and Steve Johnson are some recent examples and a few players from Adelaide that fit that mould are Eddie Betts and Charlie Cameron. At $17 we think Betts is great value, if he can slot 3 or 4 goals and kick a crucial goal in the late stages then he should go close.

TIP: Eddie Betts to win the Norm Smith – $17 at Ladbrokes



Written by Bet King - Sports Betting Tips

Bet King provides betting previews, promotions and advice on the latest sports events around the globe. We also aim to provide comprehensive reviews of the best betting sites in Australia. Make Bet King your number #1 choice for expert betting tips. Betting Tips

Leave a Reply