2017 AFL Finals: Week 3 Betting Tips

September 19, 2017 by Posted in AFL Tips

Two very lacklustre affairs on the weekend between Geelong and Sydney followed by GWS and West Coast on Saturday night set up what will hopefully be two prelims with much more excitement in the weekend to come. We preview both of the prelims and give our betting tips below.

Adelaide Crows vs Geelong Cats (Friday 7.20pm AEST)
Geelong ran rampant over Sydney on the weekend, defeating the Swans by 59 points in the wet at the MCG. The cream rose to the top for the Cats, with midfield stars Mitch Dunca, Patrick Dangerfield and Sam Menegola dominating the experienced Swans midfield. Geelong had 11 of the top 12 fantasy scorers on the game to highlight their dominance and will take some solid form into their clash with the Crows this weekend.

The two teams met in Adelaide back in Round 18 where the Crows were 21-point victors on the night. Geelong were competitive in that match but ultimately couldn’t find enough avenues to goal to match it with the high scoring Crows. Harry Taylor needed to swing forward and kick five goals for them to remain competitive but with the initiation of Dangerfield playing as a permanent forward against the Swans on the weekend, the Cats forward line looks extremely dangerous all of a sudden.

On paper, Adelaide’s midfield probably isn’t as dangerous as the Swans, so I’d expect to see Danger back at full forward once again, where he kicked 4.3 against Sydney. It’s in Adelaide’s forward line where the real problems lie, especially with Cats defender Tom Lonergan missing the Swans clash through illness. He’ll be back in the side for this match but still could be a little underdone.

Dangerfield in the forward line adds a whole new dynamic to the Cats line-up and allows Tom Hawkins to push further up the ground where he arguably does his best work. The Cats don’t lose too much in the way of contested ball in the middle of the ground, with stoppage kings in Duncan and the Selwood brothers to carry the workload in the midfield.

The Crows will be without Brodie Smith, who suffered a season ending knee injury in the win over GWS and Mitch McGovern is also in doubt with a hamstring injury. If this was in Victoria we’d put some stock in an upset here but Adelaide have proven themselves throughout the year and are incredibly tough to beat at home. We think they win in a close one here and return to the Grand Final for the first time since 1998.

TIP: Adelaide to win by 1-39 – $2.10 at Sportsbet


Richmond Tigers vs Greater Western Sydney Giants (Saturday 4.45 AEST)
Who would have tipped that the Tigers would have been a force to be reckoned with this year? (oh wait, we did back in May). Regardless, the Tigers have had one of the truly amazing years in recent memory, catapulting from 13th last season to making their first prelim final in 16 years. It has been on the back of one of the more dominant seasons ever by a player in midfielder, Dustin Martin, who is a lock for the Brownlow medal on Monday night.

They face the Giants at the MCG on Saturday afternoon, who smashed the Eagles by 67 points in their semi-final. Without Shane Mumford or Jeremny Cameron in the line-up, the Giants looked quicker and more dangerous with the smaller forward line as Steve Johnson slotted six goals in the win. They’ll likely go into this match unchanged, with Rory Lobb putting up a great effort as the number one ruckman on Saturday night.

It’s set to be a one-sided affair in terms of crowd participation on Saturday night, with the MCG set to clear the 90,000 mark, with the vast majority of them being rampaging Tiger fans. It could play a part in the emotions of some of the younger Giants players but they have the experience in skipper Phil Davis and co. to argue that it won’t have that much effect on the game.

On paper, the Giants boast the better and more deep midfield, and if they can corral the influence of Dusty Martin they should be well and truly on top in that area of the ground. Alex Rance will probably do a great job on Jon Patton so it will be up to the GWS small forwards and their attacking midfield to do the scoring. While the Tigers have Martin, I think the Giants just boast more matchwinners and at their very best, are better than the Tigers, the combination of Josh Kelly, Dylan Shiel, Stephen Coniglio, Callan Ward, Tom Scully or Lachie Whitfield through the midfield for the Giants is just too deep to not have a massive impact and small forward Toby Greene might be the biggest match winner of them all.

It seems almost poetic that the Tigers be destined to lose this game as well with favourite son Brett Deledio returning to the MCG to drive the knife through the heart of the Tigers fans one more time. We like the upset here.

TIP: GWS to win – $2.40 at Sportsbet




Written by Bet King - Sports Betting Tips

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