2017 AFL Finals: Week 1 Betting Tips

September 5, 2017 by Posted in AFL Tips

After a long season and bye week in preparation, the 2017 AFL Finals are finally upon us and kick off Thursday night at 7.50pm. We take a look at every game over the weekend and give our betting tips below.

AFL Finals: Week 1 Betting Tips

Adelaide vs Greater Western Sydney (Thursday 7.50pm AEST)
In my opinion, the best two teams of the year will face of in the first qualifying final as the Crows host the Giants on Thursday night. While the Crows have looked vulnerable at times throughout the year, the majority of their 15 wins were in dominant fashion and they boast the best record against top eight sides this season.

The Giants had a slowish patch through the middle of the season due to injuries but when they were finally able to get back to full strength later in the year, they looked worthy of a spot amongst the premiership favourites. Their midfield and forward line depth is up there with the best in recent history and with the added week off to begin finals, they will probably be peaking at the perfect time of year.

Star midfielder Rory Sloane is a concern for the Crows after having surgery early last week to remove his appendix. There are rumors floating that he will suit up but with the early Thursday game its still a toss up. The Giants suffered a tough loss in the final round of the season to Geelong but their form in the four weeks prior was undeniable. It’s understandable that the line would be up around 3 goals in Adelaide favour, especially over there, but I think the Giants have a lot to offer here and should at minimum keep this close.

TIP: Greater Western Sydney +14.5 – $1.92 at Ladbrokes


Geelong vs Richmond (Friday 7.50pm AEST)
Geelong ‘host’ Richmond at the MCG Friday night in the 2nd qualifying final. The fact that this game is at the MCG is a joke but we’ll look past that for now. Geelong come into the game on the back of a great win over the Giants in the last round of the year to give them second spot on the ladder. Richmond were also impressive two weeks ago against an albeit lackluster Saints team.

Both teams should be at full strength going into the match provided that Cats skipper Joel Selwood does indeed prove his fitness. This game should be won or lost in the midfield as we have a couple of quality trios going up against each other in Dangerfield, Selwood and Duncan against Martin, Cotchin and Prestia. If the game was down in Geelong, you wouldn’t think twice about picking the Cats here but the Tigers have played great at the MCG this year so you have to give them a chance.

The Tigers are the talk of the town with the bookies but they lack finals experience and their capability to get up in big games is still unproven. Dustin Martin will have to be massive H2H against Paddy Dangerfield and while he’s probably had a better season than any midfielder in the league, we think the pedigree and experience of the Cats mids and defenders will prove telling here. The Cats are are at their best against small forward lines which allow Harry Taylor to float forward and the Tigers have the smallest in the league. We like the Cats here.

TIP: Geelong -5.5 – $1.92 at Sportsbet

Sydney vs Essendon (Saturday 4.50pm AEST)
One of the games of the season earlier in the year saw Sydney defeat Essendon after being down by two goals with just over a minute to go. That win for Sydney ignited their 2017 season and saw them win 8 of their next 9 games to round out the season. They’ll come into this game as red hot favourites against the Bombers, who just snuck into the finals with a final round win over Fremantle.

While they have been fantastic there for much of the season, I’m not sure if the smaller SCG really suits the Sydney style of play. Lance Franklin in particular likes the wider grounds with more room to lead out into and the quick running style of the Bombers should be effective on the SCG.

By no means are we saying that the Bombers will win this match, but we think given the close nature of their last encounter coupled with a pretty high 32 point line, the Bombers should be able to cover here. The Bombers have only been beaten by more than that margin on three occasions this year, two of those to Adelaide.

TIP: Essendon +32.5 – $1.92 at Ladbrokes


Port Adelaide vs West Coast (Saturday 7.50pm AEST)
Probably the forgotten game of finals week one features the two teams that no one really gives a chance of winning the 2017 premiership in the Power and Eagles. Port Adelaide were dominant over the lower teams throughout the year but struggled against teams in the eight, winning just two games against current top eight teams in 2017.

West Coast were able to just sneak into the finals with a big final round win over Adelaide to nudge out the Demons and have a massive chance of progressing to the next round here against Port Adelaide. The Power are extremely top heavy with their 5 or 6 best players doing the majority of the work in the midfield and up forward.

The Eagles have a great record at Adelaide Oval, winning in 4 of their last 5 trips there and look to have found form at the right time of the year with an impressive performance against the Giants followed by the win against Adelaide. We think they can keep this one close as well.

TIP: West Coast +14.5 – $1.92 at Sportsbet


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