2016 Winterbottom Stakes Betting Tips

November 25, 2016 by Posted in Betting Tips, Horse Racing Tips

Perth Racing

The 2016 Winterbottom Stakes over 1200m is the second leg of the three-week Group 1 Carnival at Ascot Racecourse in Perth. We have a field of 12 set to line up in what looks to be one of the strongest Winterbottom’s in recent times, so make sure to read our latest racing betting tips

The rail moves into the 6m position for today’s meeting; last week we raced with a 3m rail and the track played superbly so I’d expect it to once again race very fairly. We have seen the rail play favourably when the temperatures rise and the track firms, however, and with 36 degree heat on Friday and 37 degree heat on Saturday it may pay to keep an eye on the early races to get a gauge of how the track is playing.

There looks to be a good deal of pace here about six horses capable of leading but I think we’ll see Sheidel take up the running from barrier 6 with Military Reign charging across to sit outside her from barrier 12. I think Malaguerra will take a sit on the rail behind the leader from barrier 1, because if they sit any further back they will need plenty of luck to get out. Keen Array gets blinkers on for the first time so expect to see him prominent, but Vega Magic will also be looking to hold a position from barrier 2. Terravista looks set to get the run of the race from barrier 5 – he should sit midfield, one off the rail. Rock Magic will settle a touch worse than midfield from barrier 3, and I fear Takedown might have a tough time trying to slot in from barrier 8. He might get caught three-wide, which could allow the likes of Regal Commander, First Among Equals and State Solicitor to get cover in the three-wide running line. Battle Hero will bring up the rear.

It does appear as if the Eastern States horses have the wood over the locals, and it’s hard to go past MALAGUERRA who comes off a Group 1 victory in the Darley Classic. That form is very strong for a race like this, and with even luck I think he’s your winner. It will be interesting to see how they ride him from barrier 1. We’ve seen him lead all the way, we’ve seen him come from midfield but I think they’ve got no choice but to sit on the back of the leader from the gate. I’ve got him rated around the $2.80 mark so I think the $3.50 is a price worth betting on, though I took $4.50 a few weeks back following the news of Lankan Rupee’s injury.

The obvious danger to him is TERRAVISTA who returned in very encouraging style when flashing home to miss by a pimple in the Mumm Stakes. On exposed form, you’d probably say he’s the best horse in the race, but he’s had his issues and it’s been a long time since we’ve seen him string two good runs together. He gets every possible chance here from barrier 5 with Bowman on board, and if Malaguerra gets held up, Terravista might be off and gone.

I think the best of the locals is one at a very good price, and that’s FIRST AMONG EQUALS at $23. He is way over the odds. If we look back through his form we can see he recorded successive victories over Rock Magic before Rock Magic beat him by half a length at the end of August. His last two starts have been as good as barrier trials because he’s been blocked for the entire straight on both occasions. His trainer is very, very bullish about his chances and he finally draws a barrier which will allow him to get into the three-wide running line and let down in the straight. Include him in everything.

I did think ROCK MAGIC was the best of the locals but that was before the news broke that he will be wearing bar plates; the reason being he quartered his heel (cracked the quarter of his hoof) quite badly. That’s certainly not ideal and nor is the addition of bar plates, so unfortunately he’ll be left out of my selections despite his impressive recent form.

Two of the forgotten horses might be TAKEDOWN and SHEIDEL. Takedown started his preparation with successive victories at Randwick, the latter of which he beat Our Boy Malachi who started favourite in the Darley! He had to do some work last start with a big weight but if he performs to his best he will run a big race. The concern is the sticky barrier which could see him planted three-wide without cover. If he wins, look out because Gary Moore will go ballistic!

Sheidel on the other hand used to race in this part of the world, and it’s easy to forget she has won 9 of her 10 starts at Ascot! That’s a phenomenal record and her racing style allows her to make that 10 here. She’ll go straight to the front and try to skip away on the corner, a tactic we’ve seen her use plenty of times before here. She does have a bit to do to turn the tables on Malaguerra though, who beat her by 3.75L at the same weights last start.

William Pike rides STATE SOLICITOR which is a horse with 6 wins from 7 starts, and one which he believes is the best WA horse in the field. He’s been making his way steadily through the grades but takes on the big boys for the first time today. From barrier 11 I suspect they’ll drag him back and look for cover, but I just fear the step up to WFA Group 1 level may be bit soon for him, and the barrier makes it tough.

VEGA MAGIC is very progressive and his record speaks for himself, but rising to 58.5kg under weight-for-age conditions could find him out, while Keen Array, Regal Commander, Battle Hero or Military Reign are going well enough to win this.

2016 Winterbottom Stakes Betting Tips

1st MALAGUERRA
2nd TERRAVISTA
3rd FIRST AMONG EQUALS
4th SHEIDEL

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