2016 Victoria Derby Betting Tips

October 28, 2016 by Posted in Betting Tips, Horse Racing Tips

Victoria Derby Day

2016 Victoria Derby Betting Tips

The $1.5million AAMI Victoria Derby is the feature race on a huge day to kick off the Flemington Spring racing carnival, which includes three other Group 1’s to go with it.

The track is a Good 4 ahead of Derby Day with the rail in the True position so there should be no excuses.

We have a capacity field of 16 runners set to line up over the 2500m, but similar to the Melbourne Cup, there will be plenty of these which won’t see out the distance.

The speed in the race will come from Morvada (barrier 12), Highlad (15) and the first emergency Peter John (3) if he manages to get a run. While the pace setters will have to come across from out wide, I don’t see this being run at a very fast tempo once they settle.

I’ve narrowed this down to about four horses (Sacred Elixir, Swear, Inference, So Si Bon), with another three rough chances (Rocketeer, Highlad, Beach Life).

The clear standout is SACRED ELIXIR and he looks to be one of the best bets all day to me. This horse just ticks all the boxes: bred to love 2500m, running like he will love 2500m, already a Group 1 winner, barrier 1, top jockey and comes off a quite outstanding win last start. Moonee Valley wasn’t his track and he copped a bit of trouble but his class got him through, and I just can’t wait to see how good he will be on a big track like Flemington. He is still at $3.10 and I think he’ll start even shorter than that.

The best of the Sydney horses looks to be SWEAR who ran 2nd to Yankee Rose last start. That form is obviously very strong and provided he handles the extra 500m in distance he should give this a big shake. The Hawkes stable also have INFERENCE representing them and he looks a value chance at $15. He copped plenty of interference in the straight in the Caulfield Classic last start but he hit the line very well which indicates to me he will love the 2500m and the big Flemington straight. The big problem for him is barrier 20.

SO SI BON has a huge chance in this and is another that will be suited by the Flemington track. He did well to finish 3rd behind Sacred Elixir last start given he apparently doesn’t like Soft ground. Hugh Bowman takes over here and if he can slot in midfield then he should be eating up the 2500m.

Of the others, HIGHLAD, BEACH LIFE and ROCKETEER hold minor claims. Highlad was wide without cover the entire race last start and might go forward here. He can bounce back with a better run throughout the race. Beach Life settled last and went 8 deep around the turn last start and still managed to finish 4th. From barrier 8 he may be able to settle better and he should be competitive, while Rocketeer continues to run well but will need plenty of luck from barrier 19.

Outside of Sacred Elixir I think there is plenty of deadwood in this race. If the Kiwi gets luck in the straight and not too many traffic issues, I see him winning this quite comfortably.




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