2016 Ted Van Heemst Stakes Betting Tips

December 16, 2016 by Posted in Horse Racing Tips

Perfect Reflection

TED VAN HEEMST STAKES 2100m – Group 2

The Group 2 Ted Van Heemst Stakes is the feature race of the day at Ascot this weekend in the lead up to the Group 2 Perth Cup on New Years Eve. The great mare Delicacy won this race last year before going on to break weight-carrying records in her Perth Cup victory two weeks later.

Coincidentally, Perfect Reflection was the last horse to beat Delicacy before she retired and it is her that comes up favourite here.

She will have to go back in the field from barrier 12 and hope for a good tempo from the likes of Fathoms Of Gold, who looks to be the only recognized leader in the race. Tradesman may have to roll forward from barrier 13 given the lack of tempo on paper, which will leave Zarantz and Bass Strait to get the run of the race in 3rd and 4th.

I’m Feeling Lucky should settle just ahead of midfield with possibly Neverland taking closer order from barrier 2. Itsahymn and Respondent will settle worse than midfield, as will Dark Musket and Dubai Escapade, while Shinta Mani and Tick Tick Bloom will bring up the tail of the field.

As mentioned, it doesn’t looks as if the tempo of the race will be particularly strong, just as most staying races in WA aren’t, but if Perfect Reflection can settle close enough with some cover she might just be too good anyway. She comes off consecutive 3rd placings in the Railway Stakes and Kingston Town Classic (both at Group 1 level) and given the strength of those fields, will find this much easier. She steps up to 2100m for the first time here, but her mum was a WA Oaks winner over 2400m so her breeding suggests she should handle the trip. She carries less weight than anything else in the race and she is undoubtedly the best horse in the race so with all things being equal, she should be hard to beat here.

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Her stablemate Neverland ran 2nd to Delicacy in the Perth Cup last year and that looks to be his main goal once again this time around. He will have no problem with the distance and has been building nicely towards this race and the Cup in two weeks time. His last start was a 5th in the Kingston Town Classic where he just ground away in the straight, but the step up in trip will help his cause and with a soft run from barrier 2, he can be in the finish.

Another horse with the Cup in mind is Dark Musket, who jumped from 1600m to 2200m last start and ran 3rd to Kia Ora Koutou. He comes into this on the one week back-up and drops to 2100m, but with last week’s run under his belt he should be at his top here. He’s never won from 11 starts at the track and does draw sticky in barrier 9, so place chances look best for him.

The run of the race will go to Zarantz and with that in mind he must come into calculations here but he’s another horse that struggles at the track with not a single placing from 9 starts. Having said that, I think he’s going really well for new trainer Simon Miller. His last start came over the track and distance behind Respondent, where he was badly held up for the entire straight and never got a clear crack at them. From barrier 4 he should be a player in the finish.

Tradesman is a horse that I have a lot of time for but I’m not sure he is ideally suited here. He has been running nice races in the Group 1’s in recent weeks, and did have to endure a three-wide trip throughout the Kingston Town, but from barrier 13 here he might find it difficult once again. Having said that, he did win convincingly over 2000m at Belmont during the winter and his best form is good enough, but he’ll need plenty to go his way.

The best value in the race and a horse I am most excited about is I’m Feeling Lucky, and I can’t quite understand how we are getting $15 about him. This horse is absolutely flying since joining this stable, having recorded four consecutive wins last prep before returning with a fantastic 2nd to Silverstream two weeks ago. He normally doesn’t run well at all when fresh so that suggests he is in the best form of his career. He makes the sharp step up from 1400m to 2100m which is the query, but he did win his only other start over this track and distance. From barrier 7 he should sit 5th or 6th and I think he will be fighting out the finish at luxurious odds.

Perfect Reflection the hardest to beat, but I’m Feeling Lucky the clear value.

1st PERFECT REFLECTION
2nd I’M FEELING LUCKY
3rd ZARANTZ
4th NEVERLAND

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